Pot odds: Why cant I call with 3 outs getting 9,5-to-1 on the flop?

[mostmighty]

So if I have 4 cards to a flush on the flop, then the correct way of evaluating if I should call a bet, is to only think of it like i am having 9 outs, and not like I have 35% chance of cathcing the flush at latest by the river?

Sorry if I am repeating myself, I am only asking to learn. :-)

[F Paulsson]

If you have 3-1 odds of making your hand by the river, you have to factor in the cost of getting to the river. If the pot is 2 bets now, and your opponent bets, you're getting 3-1 to get to the turn, but you will (mostly) have to pay another big bet to get to the river, which will bring up the cost to paying 3 small bets (one big bet and one small bet) in order to win 3+2 = 5. Your odds are now 5-3, which is not good enough to call.

My post is a bit redundant given what has been stated already, but hopefully it will clarify the concept some. The "Theory of Poker" that was referred to is a book by David Sklansky, by the way.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]

Look for example in the hand quiz section in SSHE, quiz 9 on flop play. The flop have come on the table and a player bets before us, making it 9,5 small bets in the pot. The author says that he thinks we have 3 clean outs. Based on that, the advice is to fold to the bet.

I understand that if you only calculate my chances for getting my draw at the turn, the odds will only be 3 out of 47, that is 14,7-to-1. But what I dont understand is why we dont include the chance to hit the outs at the river too? In that case I would have two subsequent draws both getting approximately 14,7-to-1. And that would justify calling with pot odds of 9,5-to-1, right?

So why dont the authors include those future probabilities too?? Through the whole book they talk about that if I get 4 cards to a flush on the flop, I will have 35% chance of hitting the flush at latest by the river. So in this case we DO include the future draws too in our calculations.



[/ QUOTE ]

The 35% flush draw pot equity bit is a justification to RAISE if there are 3 or more players putting in money on the flop. In other words, if you are putting in 33% or 25% or 20% or 16% of the money in the flop betting round while having 35% equity, then you are making money on every bet that goes in the pot long term.

If you have a 3 outer, you have 12% equity with 2 to come. Unless it is a family pot, you won't be raising. So, pot equity with 2 to come is not helpful to consider.

So now you look and see if you have odds to call the next card. At 9.5:1 on a 14:1 shot, you don't. So you fold.

SSHE points out that sometimes you have odds to call a flop bet, but then have to fold on the turn when the bet doubles.

So, even if you were getting 15:1 on the flop on your 14:1 shot, if you miss and now are getting 8:1 on your 14:1 shot on the turn, you have to fold.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You're getting lower than 9.5:1 to hit by the river since you'll likely have to call at least one double-sized bet on the turn. Your odds to hit with 2 cards to come are only relevant when you know there will be no more betting in the hand.

[RagnarPirate]

In several books it talks about the difference between implied odds and explicit odds. The implied odds take into account additional bets on the turn and river (both to draw for the flush and payoff if you make it, you bet, and your opponent calls). The current pot odds and 9 outs to make the flush are the explicit odds that apply only to the current round.
In no-limit it is possible to make your implied odds the same as the explicit odds by going all-in. You will definitely see the river when you do so and you will know the pot odds with certainty.

The implied odds are the product of the individual explicit odds for the remaining rounds. It is difficult, however, to judge the actions of an upcoming round.

[MTBlue]

depends on how hidden the outs are. You have to get paid on average 3 big bets if you hit to make it profitable

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Your odds to hit with 2 cards to come are only relevant when you know there will be no more betting in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. They are relevant in determing whether to raise a draw on the flop for value.

[ooloth]

i had the exact same confusion a couple months ago. bottom line, consider the odds for the next card ONLY, unless you are going all-in in no limit, so there will be no more betting in future rounds. the odds only apply to the very next card; think of each card separately. Where the 35% chance of catching your flop comes in is when you are thinking about your pot equity, and whether or not you should raise rather than just whether to call. Odds are for the next card; % is for equity (i.e. should you raise). Most of this has been said already, but I wanted to make it point-blank to leave no doubt. hope that helps!

[mostmighty]

yes it helped.
All answers helped.
Thanks!
Guess you could say I had a major leak then! :-)

[Leonardo]

Honestly, forget about rules, implied odds, effective odds and any other BS that people feed you.

Simply play out the hand on paper with the different scenarios. I dont know any more details about the hand in question than what you wrote, but ill assume there are 4 guys in (including bb) for 2 small bets and the small blind folded. It sounds like you are second to act. Now the guy bets and you are getting 9.5-1 with 3 outs. Take 3 scenarios. One is that both behind you will call. The other is that one will call, the other is that one will raise and the other fold. I cant be bothered going over the other possibilities right now. In scenario 1, you will end up with 12.5 small bets in the pot. You have 3 cards to hit out of 47, which is 15-1 (close enough). So for every sixteen tries you make it once. On that one time you hit, lets assume you win the hand 90% of the time. You will bet the turn and river and assuming you dont get raised you need to swell the pot to 20 bets to break even (cos 4 of them will be yours on the turn and river, making 16 not yours from the flop on). Hence the pot will swell from 12.5 to 20.5 if you can get one caller to call both bets and you make 0.45 bets per 16 hands, or about 0.03 per hand. If you get two callers for both bets then you make the pot 24.5 and you make 4.5*90% = 4.05 small bets per 16 hands or about 0.25 per hand. Now run the other less favorable scenarios.

Now, if you miss, you have a whole new game. You will have 12.5 small bets in the pot and be facing 2 small bets for a call if someone bets. Now if you assume at least one caller, you will get 7.5 to one on your call, and have 3 outs in 46 cards which is about 14-1. Assuming you can pick up 3 small bets on average if you hit the river, you are still making a bad call.

So basically, it doesnt look too bad to call the flop and if you miss fold the turn if it gets bet. Of course this is using quite favorable assumptions on other peoples play. I think if you take a weighted average it will turn out something like break even or slightly negative. I think overall it is probably a close to break even play.