PP 30/60 - Here's a hand that people disagreed with my play...

[Jay.]

i call.

i bet you would get different responses if you posted this hand without the river card and asked for hand ranges with percentages.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
Is villain raising 98s in MP2?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 7 handed and he's in the hijack two off the button. If he's going to play it, he has to open.

[eviljeff]

at first I thought you were thinking about just calling the river to go for overcalls. I don't think I could ever just call here vs. a 1.5 at gamespeed.

[amulet]

i believe in trusting your reads. however, here the math says too much for me not to raise the river. i raise, then if he 3 bets, you could just call. not to raise here seems like you loose value in this situation over your poker lifetime. i assume you posted because he had 77, but i still must raise at least once with top full house. he may not have got out of line yet, and you maybe believe he has 77, but i think your shown more hands here then the nuts (over your poker lifetime).

[MainEvent]

Your point here is clear but there is something that doesn't sit right with me. You are saying that you haven't seen him get out of line before and that makes you more concerned that he has quad 7's than you would be against another player.

However, if he has quad 7's then he got out of line on the turn when he didn't have the nuts or 2nd nuts. So apparently this guy is capable of "getting out of line".

Since this is the case, combine that with the generally remote possibility that he holds quads for the one hand that beats you, I say you should raise/call the river.

Edit: And if he had the nuts on the turn, you just pulled ahead. Obvious point, but part of the argument.

[Dazarath]

First, wow, I thought this thread was dead. But since it's back again, I'll add some more thoughts.

[ QUOTE ]
i assume you posted because he had 77, but i still must raise at least once with top full house.

[/ QUOTE ]
The villain did have 77, but that's not the reason I posted it. The reason I posted it, is because in my head, the only two options were call, and raise/call. Everyone I showed the hand to asked, "why no cap?" I thought maybe my thinking was completely off, so I figured I'd ask the advice of the forum.


[ QUOTE ]
i call.

i bet you would get different responses if you posted this hand without the river card and asked for hand ranges with percentages.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this. On the turn, I had put his hand range on exactly 77, or 77 with a tiny chance of something wacky. I think I actually cussed aloud and almost woke up my roommate when the 7 fell, even before I got to see showdown.

One thing a lot of people are missing is that the whole idea of comparing card combinations usually assumes that each combination is of equal probability. It doesn't matter if I'm ahead of 50 possible combinations and only behind 1, if the total combined possibility of those 50 combos is only 10%. Maybe it's being results oriented, but the more I think about it, the more I feel that there's no way he only has a 33ish% chance of 77 (Sklansky's estimate for a raise).

[volcano1976]

Are you on crack either playing or posting this hand ?

[jskills]

It's hard to be afraid of the one combination of cards that beats you here (77). It really is.

But from the looks of things, it is starting to look like it just might be that. What else could it be?

It might be easy to just call the river I guess. But I think I raise the river, but just call a 3-bet (after vomiting).

[Spy Dog]

It's just a call. While 98s is a possibility through the turn, I think this player is smart enough to know that you have TT/77/22 when you cap the turn. So, he's probably check-calling the river with 98 or 22 (not to mention that he may not even raise these hands preflop).

In the heat of the battle I would have raised this. But, after analyzing this is a pretty clear call.

[Payoff]

raise call then yell YOU LUCKY MORON!!!! in caps in the chat box when he shows you 77