200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad

[Keepitsimple]

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is it spew if i always call this turn?

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depends on villain andif you think you have any implied odds

EDIT: your image also plays a pretty big role on occasion

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I think its a good call vs most players since you have position and almost pot odds vs sets. With that said, had he/she bet full pot I think its spew vs most players.

[psuasskicker]

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is it spew if i always call this turn?

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Vs. a nit? Probably. He's led into you twice...I think he's representing massive strength.

I probably just fold here. I'd put him on nothing less than a set, possibly KJ.

- C -

[adanthar]

Do you ever not get, say, a hundred out of him on a club/J river? I don't like folding this.

[cbloom]

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Vs. a nit? Probably. He's led into you twice...I think he's representing massive strength.


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It's not a question of whether you're beat, it's a question of how much you get on the river if you hit. Some nits get stuck on big hands like sets and pay off good, which would make the turn call ++EV.

[cbloom]

BTW it may be results oriented, but I think just calling the flop is best.

A 16/8 player is only leading into the PFR with monsters or draws trying to b-3b. Since you have the good draw it makes it less likely he's donking a draw, and more likely he's donking a big hand. All the sets are very unlikely here, I bet he has KJ.

[aejones]

Type in the chatbox, "You're a nit, you should have folded KJ preflop."

Actually, I think you do have FE on this turn. Think about this for a second. He is highly unlikely to have KJ because if he's really 16/8, gawd knows he shouldn't be calling that from oop (he's also very likely to b3b the flop).

If he's got AA or QQ, he's very likely to rr preflop. If he's got TT, he's sort of likely to rr preflop. Therefore, I think he's got AQ or AT. That said, unless you have the image of a chip-spewing donkey, I think you can shove this turn profitably. If he's nitty at all, there is no way he calls a turn shove after bet-raise, bet-shove action. (A6 is out of his range because nits don't call flop raises with a naked ace on that board)

And no, I don't like calling the flop because when we hit our draw is now transparent, and a nit can get away from it.

[FishSticks]

Even if we decide to rule out the straight and the sets (which I don't think we really can like that), and put him on AQ/AT, he's not folding - especially AQ. The fact that he's a nit doesn't make me think we have added FE here against top two, it makes me think that when he already has put half his stack in the middle he's not going anywhere.

[Sadat X]

It seems like you're looking at AQ/AT here. If you push the turn, he's going to need to call 100 in a 300 or so pot, so he's pretty much committed himself to the call here.

If you push, based on the way you've played the hand, probably puts you on a big pocket pair, but won't be able to rule out AK, AT or a flush draw so I think he makes the call anyway.

I also think he pays you off for his remaining 100 or so if you make the flush, so I call the turn bet. 65 to you, you stand to win about 260, close to 0 EV, but I like to gambool.

[aejones]

I'm just trying to play Devil's Advocate here to try and make a case for a push. Basically, I think we're strongly representing AAA and QQQ here, based on there, with about 150-200 behind- is a raise/ push now +EV if he's going to have trouble even calling with TTT?

[FishSticks]

I hear what you're saying, but I'd need a pretty strong read that he makes big laydowns often, and I'd want to have a pretty tight image myself and feel he was aware of that. I don't think he would have any trouble calling with TTT - especially since a push is going to offer him like 3:1 on his money to call.