Turning Stone 5/10 No Max: Hooks

[creedofhubris]

I would expect to see a set or two pair here ~75% of the time.

I think this is an easy muck.

[ahnuld]

setville, population villan.

[Spladle]

[ QUOTE ]
setville, population villan.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's funny 'cause it's true.

[ezratei]

I don't see how you can possible call the FLOP here, let alone the turn. What is your plan for the run when you call OOP? Especially after limping preflop, I think this is an easy fold as soon as someone raises ... you just wasted $200.

[okayplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I would expect to see a set or two pair here ~75% of the time.

I think this is an easy muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys do realize that he has to call $1600 into a final pot (after call) of $4920, right? That's ~32.5% of the pot.

If he has a set only, he would need to call $1451 or less. But Hero said, that he felt like 2 pr were in his range, and weighted them more heavily than a set. But, even if we give them (2p/set) normal distribution, Hero is ~36.4% against Villain, and now a call is correct.

Disclaimer: I do not agree with how Hero played the hand, and likely would have just folded the flop. I also think a set is much more likely, but Hero was there, and he had the read, so thats what we have to go with.

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would expect to see a set or two pair here ~75% of the time.

I think this is an easy muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys do realize that he has to call $1600 into a final pot (after call) of $4920, right? That's ~32.5% of the pot.

If he has a set only, he would need to call $1451 or less. But Hero said, that he felt like 2 pr were in his range, and weighted them more heavily than a set. But, even if we give them (2p/set) normal distribution, Hero is ~36.4% against Villain, and now a call is correct.

Disclaimer: I do not agree with how Hero played the hand, and likely would have just folded the flop. I also think a set is much more likely, but Hero was there, and he had the read, so thats what we have to go with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay player,

Thanks for the analysis, in the future just say 3300-1600 or 2-1 and not mess with all the percentages.

-JP

[GTL]

I have been playing aggressively at the table and villain would certainly raise here with a much larger range than just a set. When I called the flop my plan was to see the turn and evaluate from there, possibly try and take the pot away from a strong hand on the turn if a scare card came. I'm suprised that several of you would muck this hand on the flop, especially against a weak villain.

[GTL]

Again, if I just saw the action or if this hand was online I would certainly agree that this was a set or two pair, but I had a fairly strong live read on the guy. Edit, in retrospect i guess the best course of action on the flop is to raise or fold. I could have probably avoided a messy situation by raising the flop instead of calling.

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing aggressively at the table and villain would certainly raise here with a much larger range than just a set. When I called the flop my plan was to see the turn and evaluate from there, possibly try and take the pot away from a strong hand on the turn if a scare card came. I'm suprised that several of you would muck this hand on the flop, especially against a weak villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is silly, its difficult to take the pot away from the opponent on a scare card when youre OOP. One of the scariest cards in the deck fell and look where that got you.

You should try harder to limit his hand range on the flop, I know this isnt alwalys easy, but it will save you lots of $$ in the long run. Calling to play the turn by ear is not a good idea when out of position. You may look for a safe card if you think hes on a draw and either CR all in or lead but that does not coincide with looking for a scare card to bluff him off a better hand.

-JP