Turning Stone 550 ESPC, Bad Spot with Huge Draw

[Todd Terry]

Are we calling hoping to induce Ansky to jam so the old guy jams so we can call and have pot odds to win a huge pot? If not, I don't understand the call. Ansky is never calling behind us, he's either jamming (with a set or a straight) or folding. If a club hits the turn, I can't believe we're getting paid off unless someone else also has a flush, which happens almost never. We're getting less than 2:1 to call the old guy, with no implied odds IMO. It's also more than 1/3 of our stack to call.

I think the old guy's range is mostly 22 and 33 with a slight chance of A2 or A3 (hasn't played a pot, just put in a small pot-building raise over a C/R). Ansky was in the BB, he could have anything, including a set or a straight. Especially with Ansky, who did C/R the flop after all, still to act behind us, I think this has to be a fold.

[0evg0]

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Ansky was in the BB, he could have anything, including a set or a straight. Especially with Ansky, who did C/R the flop after all, still to act behind us, I think this has to be a fold.

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When Ansky gets all-in with AA vs KK he actually is a 90% favorite when you include the "Ansky is in the pot, therefore he'll win" factor into the calculations.

Saying he's never calling behind is silly.

[ASPoker8]

UTG+1 has A2, A3, 22, 33

thats about it

Therefore, we call. If Ansky shoves, the old guy will call, and we gladly call. If Ansky calls, excellent.

[Todd Terry]

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Ansky was in the BB, he could have anything, including a set or a straight. Especially with Ansky, who did C/R the flop after all, still to act behind us, I think this has to be a fold.

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When Ansky gets all-in with AA vs KK he actually is a 90% favorite when you include the "Ansky is in the pot, therefore he'll win" factor into the calculations.

Saying he's never calling behind is silly.

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I can't think of a single hand that he would call behind with. What would it be?

[bruce]

Calling may not be the best play. We are only gettin 2:1 on our call and we don't know what Ansky is going to do.
We don't know if Ansky will reraise and if the old guy calls.

Bruce

[ASPoker8]

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Calling may not be the best play. We are only gettin 2:1 on our call and we don't know what Ansky is going to do.
We don't know if Ansky will reraise and if the old guy calls.

Bruce

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what?

If we call and Ansky raises and the old calls thats generally really good for us because we always have enough equity to stick it in and have it be +EV.

If Ansky folds, whatever, re-evaluate turn. Shouldn't be too difficult since we know what old guy has and old people don't know how to price you out of draws.

If Ansky raises, the old guy is always calling because he has 22 or 33 and sometimes A2 or A3

[bruce]

If we know Ansky will reraise and old guy calls we have an easy call.

What happens if we call and Ansky folds? We're getting a lousy price on our call and we'll probably have a difficult turn decision to make if a club doen't come. Believing that old person will bet too little on the turn, thus giving
us a reason to call if Ansky folds doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Bruce

[ASPoker8]

If Ansky folds then we'll likely have an easy turn decision because we know what UTG+1 has and because hes old and likely to play poorly on the turn.

Also, even if Ansky folds behind us, we're getting more than enough odds to call.

We are 38% against 33, which is his strongest hand against us.

Call is clearly the best option

[ZJ123]

Doesn't Flatting the flop turn our hand faceup?

[ASPoker8]

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Doesn't Flatting the flop turn our hand faceup?

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to Ansky, probably, to old guy, no way [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]