Dark All In--What Do You Call With?

[Mook]

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22+, Any Ace, Any King. Queens down to Q7.

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Only acceptable answer.

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I'll tell you what. I'll put you in the BB with Q7o in the exact situation described by the OP. I'll even stipulate that the intervening 8 players are soooo tight that they would have folded everything except AA, KK, QQ, or AK. And we'll run this scenario one million times, with you calling with your Q7 each time.

My guess is that at the end of these 1,000,000 trials, you would be staring at an enormous, staggering, jaw-dropping cumulative loss ... certainly in the high seven figures, but my guess is in the eight figures.

Do you see why?

Mook

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mook please prove your math.

[Gonso]

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mook please prove your math.

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Easy enough, just calculate your EV per hand, and multiply by a million.

But remember, it's folded around as the OP put it. It's strictly a HU problem. If you want to go making assumptions about what was folded, that's a whole different thing when you start factoring in card removal effects, which would probably not be that significant. You could reasonably rule out someone folding AA, but you can't rule out that two or more aces were not folded between the various hands.

[mvdgaag]

There's no point gambling without an edge, so the small difference the possibly removed cards make does not really affect your decision. I'd say I go for any hand where I'm a small fav if I'm willing to gamble here.
Let's say any two cards 8 or higher, any two cards 6 or higher when suited, any pair, any ace, any suited king or queen and 42o for the fun of it.

[sweeng8]

as said before, it depends what you bankroll is, and how much of a gambler you are.
Personally I would call with any A. against most random hands that makes you 60/40 favorite. I would call with any 2 cards 10 or higher, and any pair higher than say 55 or 66. Calling with suited connectors, and K highs,etc, you are basically flipping a coin which i wouldnt want to do. Similarly calling with 22 or 33 would a definate no no as you either a coin toss or a big underdog. My personal minimum odds i would take would be 60/40 in my favour.

As a side point, any player who would do that is most likely an idiot with too much money. If you were to sit with a player like that over the course of a night you will probably be playing with at the very least a 60/40 edge, so I wouldnt risk anything less one one hand

[Mook]

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But remember, it's folded around as the OP put it. It's strictly a HU problem.

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These two statements are completely contradictory, which is why I'm so confident in my assertion above (despite the math being incredibly complex - way too complex for me to want to tackle). Q7o would be a profitable hand if this were solely a heads-up situation, but it's far from it. You have 8 people in between the Villain and yourself, each of which threw away a hand.

You don't know what any of them threw away, exactly, but you do know that not one of them had something good enough to call with. Card removal dictates that the Villain is therefore more likely to have a better hand than he would if you had no information about anyone else's hand (e.g. if you were heads-up, or even if you were next to act after the all-in).

Again, I don't know exactly how much more likely, but I can guarantee you it's enough to turn Q7o from profitable to unprofitable in this situation.

Am I making sense to anyone?

Mook

[Gonso]

It makes sense to me, but can you quantify what the calling ranges are of all of the players who folded? Or do you want to just rough guess and then guesstimate your range again?

No?

If you can, please give them (and explain how), and from there we'll give the exact range. Until then, the scope of the problem wasn't inclusive of all this. I could make up loose ranges that would make this a call only with premium hands if you wanted, but I didn't want to introduce a lot of assumptions.

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You don't know what any of them threw away, exactly, but you do know that not one of them had something good enough to call with

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It's pretty clear from this thread that some players will incorrectly fold profitbale calling hands here, simply because they aren't sure what hands are profitable. Then, there's the issue of money pressure. Some people would even fold AJ from the SB here. Obviously there people that would fold TT UTG+2 and so on.

Also, we only know this is FR, not whether it's 10 players, or 9 players (etc.). Another assumption is creeping into your guesswork here.

Besides all that, while the card removal effects stand to improve his hand (which I mentioned above BTW), it's probably almost trivial. You could easily have situations where other players folded A5, A7, KJ, A4 and so on. Just because someone woould't fold AA doesn't mean two aces aren't missing.

Am I making sense to you?

[Gonso]

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In the worst-case scenario, let's say your opponents would each have called with any +EV hand and they all folded. That tells you, among other things, that none of your opponents held an ace or king (any hand containing either of these two cards is +EV vs. a random hand) and thus Villain is far more likely to hold one than he would be if you were heads-up to start.

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This is a horribly unrealistic assumption, a lot of hands superior to UTG's can easily fold if in bad position. You have an informational advantage from the BB that none of the other players do. On top of that, many hands that are +EV for you are NOT +EV for them (because of the players yet to act behind them). You are able to call with all kinds of hands that they are not. AJ in EP has a lot of thinking to do, for example - you don't. If you were to get this hand and the action was folded to you, it would be an instacall.


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I'll tell you what. I'll put you in the BB with Q7o in the exact situation described by the OP. I'll even stipulate that the intervening 8 players are soooo tight that they would have folded everything except AA, KK, QQ, or AK.

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This at least is a little better.

If you want to factor this in, and make it a 9 player table, your profitable calling range is any ace, K4s+, K6o+, Q7s+, Q9o+, JTo+, J9s+, any pair 44+.

I ran this through SNGPT, and from what I recall this also assumes that you are calling even if one of the hands in between makes a call. If that's correct, and I don't have time to look it up this second, then obviously the range above is still too tight because that's not realistic. I suspect you didn't account for this? You won't call with QT if another player calls the push ahead of you. You can't even call with JJ profitably against that range (+ the random hand).

For practical purposes, those who require a hand that's 55-45 or better vs a random hand -a few people in the thread including myself- would easily be fine to call here in this spot, even factoring in the other players. You can hold out for a 60% vs random if you want to, but that's a lot of equity you're basically abandoning just to avoid variance. You can fold A4s here?