Is this a good prop bet ?

[jimmyfingers]

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He loses if the flop contains no j,7, or 2. This will happen:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50= 44.7%

So he wins the other 55.3% of the time.

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for bets like this you should also consider whether the cards that come and the fact that you're seeing a flop are independent.

for example, you could say that if a flop is seen it's less likely that an ace will flop because it's more likely that someone has an ace in their hand. conversely, it may be more likely that a deuce comes because people play less hands with deuces in them.

of course, in this lop-sided bet it's not enough to make the difference, but it could make a difference if the bet was very close to (or exactly) even... for example, if you're betting a prop where you win every time your pair flops, it's better to pick deuces than aces because given a flop is seen you're more likely to see two deuces than two aces.

food for thought...