Is this a good prop bet ?
 

Last night I was at my local casino and this guy says that he will bet even money all night that each flop will contain either a jack, seven or duece.

My reasoning was that he had (12/52) so 1 out of every 4.3 cards would be his and since we are only taking 3 cards that I had the best of it.

We ran it for forty hands straight at $5 a flop and I quit after losing $75. Afterwards he told me that mathmatically he was 53% to win. I've been stuggling with this and need some clarity as to the exact odds.

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

P^3

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

The bet was that if any jacks, sevens or dueces show up on the flop I lose.

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

He loses if the flop contains no j,7, or 2. This will happen:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50= 44.7%

So he wins the other 55.3% of the time.

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He loses if the flop contains no j,7, or 2. This will happen:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50= 44.7%

So he wins the other 55.3% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

for bets like this you should also consider whether the cards that come and the fact that you're seeing a flop are independent.

for example, you could say that if a flop is seen it's less likely that an ace will flop because it's more likely that someone has an ace in their hand. conversely, it may be more likely that a deuce comes because people play less hands with deuces in them.

of course, in this lop-sided bet it's not enough to make the difference, but it could make a difference if the bet was very close to (or exactly) even... for example, if you're betting a prop where you win every time your pair flops, it's better to pick deuces than aces because given a flop is seen you're more likely to see two deuces than two aces.

food for thought...

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

Damon Runyon quote

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“One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to come up to you and show you a nice brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the Jack of Spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not bet this man, for as sure as you are standing there, you are going to end up with an earful of cider.”

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

jimmy are you serious, please show us the math that makes dueces more likely to flop than aces

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
jimmy are you serious, please show us the math that makes dueces more likely to flop than aces

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I think he just explained why, and also told it didn't have a big impact.

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

dueces or aces have equal chances of flopping. the muck doesnt go back into the deck.

Re: Is this a good prop bet ?
 

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dueces or aces have equal chances of flopping. the muck doesnt go back into the deck.

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True.

But his point was that if a flop is actually seen, the chances are higher that someone actually has an Ace in their hand and is therefore less likely that one will come out on the flop than a card, such as a deuce, that people are less likely in general to have.
This is not based on probability, but based on knowing the tendancies of the majority of players. If no flop is seen, then it's likely that all four Aces are still in the deck and therefore more likely that one will be flopped.


But as was said, it makes a small impact and would only make a difference it the two outcomes were both closer to 50% likely. On the safe side it's better avoid cards that people are more likely to see flops with, but it won't make a difference in this case.