Fun hand 50/100 LO8

[TStoneMBD]

bet/call, hes obviously got A25... wait, hes got 23.. A56... oh i know what hes got, 2578, yah thats it!

[checkymcfold]

better hands won't fold, except to a c/r maybe, and that doesn't work 1/5-ish as necessary. the board paired the end--AK isn't folding to a bet.

check/fold. the only thing bet/folding is good against that makes any sense is a34x.

also, c/r the flop. 99% of hands that raise a limper are betting that flop. betting into the raiser for isolation with your draw is bad. if you take that line, you have a lot more fold equity on later streets as well.

3betting that turn is also bad imho, unless the villain is sophisticated enough to be putting a move on what he thinks is a naked low draw.

[TxRedMan]

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bet/call, hes obviously got A25... wait, hes got 23.. A56... oh i know what hes got, 2578, yah thats it!

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I dont even get your jokes.

[checkymcfold]

oh, and if this is sh, limping preflop is also bad.

[cero_z]

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If bet/call a raise is correct, I will take back all my previous criticism of cero_z


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LOL I thought we had the nut flush on a paired board; with A6 high I vote check-fold and don't know how anything else could be correct.

wiseheart, what past criticisms are you referring to? Sorry I missed those. Did they go, "I PM'd this guy with a bunch of hard-luck stories about running hot at 10-20, then going busto at 30-60, and he responded with free coaching in the form of several long messages for no reason other than to help me out?" Or was there something else I did?

Edit: OK bet/fold is reasonable but probably wrong; when you're running that bad they expect you to bluff and will certainly call with 2 pair, sometimes bluff-raise the river with a busted low.

[donger]

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wiseheart, what past criticisms are you referring to? Sorry I missed those. Did they go, "I PM'd this guy with a bunch of hard-luck stories about running hot at 10-20, then going busto at 30-60, and he responded with free coaching in the form of several long messages for no reason other than to help me out?" Or was there something else I did?



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LOL

[Buzz]

Hi Tex - It's hard to imagine CO raising each round without an ace or a pair. Since there is no worse hand than yours CO could have that contains an ace, if CO has an ace, then you're either tied or beaten. If CO has a pair, any pair, then you're beaten.

Check/call doesn't work because Villain is not going to bet unless he can beat your call. Check/raise doesn't work either because after Hero checks, Villain, wary of the possibility of being check/raised is not going to bet without trip queens or better (and then he calls the raise).

Thus the choices narrow down to bet or check/fold.

Check/fold would seem the better play if the pot were not so large.

But because of the size of the pot, you should give your opponent a chance to make a mistake. Thus you should bet and hope you don't get called or raised. It's unlikely, but possible. Only has to happen one time in a dozen to be correct.

CO might lay down a better but pairless ace to a bet. Or CO might lay down a lowly pair. Neither is likely, but from my experience opponents lay down winning hands to a bet at least one time in a dozen.

Most likely, if you bet you will get called and lose your bet. But sometimes, and I think more than once in a dozen, your bet will win the pot.

I think getting raised on the river here would be unusual (unless villain flopped a set of kings). How likely is Villain to have a set of kings? Logically, the odds are roughly 52 to 1 against it.

I'm getting an eerie feeling Villain held a pair of kings and thus flopped a set of kings and rivered kings full, even though the odds are much against it. But if so, then Villain's raising makes complete sense, including not capping for deceptive purposes on the second and third betting rounds.

For table image reasons, I hate to bet and then fold to a raise. But in this case, I agree with Greg that if you get raised, bet/fold is the best option. if you get raised on the river, you're probably up against a monster kings full.

All the same, I like betting the river and hoping Villain concedes. If you don't always bet the river in these scenarios, your bet has a better chance of success here.

Buzz