27s: disagree with SNGPT?

[Bubblefish]

I think that is what I have tried to calculat in my two posts in this tread...

[GotQuads]

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I think that is what I have tried to calculat in my two posts in this tread...

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Well for some reason you calculated the $EV for push/fold, when it's obvious it is at worst -1% or so. I see no reason to compute that manually when SNGPT et al do the job for us. Regarding your other post, you were more than vague about what exactly you computed, maybe you can elaborate on that.

[pastexpiry]

yeah, what is QFT?

[Scotty_12]

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yeah, what is QFT?

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'quoted for truth'

[Bubblefish]

I have made two calculations regarding this hand:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
Both post are probably somewhat vague. Hope this post don’t make it worse…

Original hand (225/425):
Hero (t1575)
CO (t1895)
Button (t3515)
SB (t3840)
BB (t2675)
Hero is in UTG with 97s

Given reasonable ranges it is -0,9 % to push 97s according to SNGPT. SNGPT does not take into account the fact that Hero is hit by the BB next hand. SNGPT is giving Hero equity of 13 % after a fold. I tried to adjust this fold equity by calculating Heros equity after the next hand, when he is in the BB, assuming everyone plays with the equilibrium ranges. This calculation gives Hero a equity of 11,13 %. SNGPT is not taking into account the fact that there might be a confrontation after Hero folds in the original hand. Finnisher suggest that this effect is raising Heros fold equity by approximately 0,5 %-points. I think this is reasonable, so my best guess is that Heros fold equity is about 11,63 %.

In my second calculation I tried to find Heros equity after pushing his 97s. This is done by calculating the next hand, when Hero is in the BB, again assuming equilibrium ranges. After some simplifications my best guess is that Heros push equity is about 10,83 %. This is not taking overcalling into account.

The conclusion is that it might look like the Equity difference between my calculations and SNGPTs original calculations is minimal. It looks like the possible confrontation after Hero folds in the original hand is outweighing the effect of being in the BB with a small stack in the following hand. This is very surprising to me. Any insight by others is very welcome.

[Finnisher]

How often is Hero folding the BB next hand in your calculations? I assume ICM over-estimates Hero's EV with a 1100 stack and 200/400 blinds so the 11.6% for folding is probably too high.

With the stacks you've used for the next hand
UTG 1870
CO 3490
Btn 3615
SB 2975
Hero 1550

eg if Btn busts UTG in the hand above the next (2nd hand after OP) is:

CO 6160
Btn 2750
SB/Hero 1125
BB 3465

ICM says Hero will ITM 40%. I don't know but that seems kinda high? And I guess it is or there would be no need to do all the stuff you've done in the first place [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I still doubt that random players in the lower buy-ins are going to call wide enough to make this a -1% SNGPT push.

BTW, do you have a special program for the NE stuff or just SNGPT?

[GotQuads]

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How often is Hero folding the BB next hand in your calculations?

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Hero cannot fold the next hand, unless the whole table is ALLIN, and we have a chance of sneaking into the money. This will rarely happen.

Note that anything we do here, is -$EV or breakeven at best. The question is simply, what is the best out of bad options we have.

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
Given reasonable ranges it is -0,9 % to push 97s according to SNGPT. SNGPT does not take into account the fact that Hero is hit by the BB next hand. SNGPT is giving Hero equity of 13 % after a fold. I tried to adjust this fold equity by calculating Heros equity after the next hand, when he is in the BB, assuming everyone plays with the equilibrium ranges. This calculation gives Hero a equity of 11,13 %. SNGPT is not taking into account the fact that there might be a confrontation after Hero folds in the original hand.

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there will be a confrontation next hand. As a rough estimate, our random hand we get will be a 37/63 underdog to whatever hand someone decides to push, assuming a 25% average pushing range. I doubt we'll ever be better than 40/60 on average, so we lose quite a lot of $EV that hand.

If we do fold next hand, because we get 72o or similar trash, our $EV drops so much I cannot see how this can be better than pushing the original hand. Note the situation would become interesting 4-handed on the bubble, but it's 5-handed so folding doesn't really help us. I'm assuming a standard 50/30/20 payout structure, of course!

[geo8o2]

push

[Bubblefish]

Thanks for taking the time to reply.

Heros calling ranges against:
UTG 28,50 %
CO 32,70 %
Btn 43,00 %
SB 61,70 %

I am just using SNGPT to determine the equilibriums.