27s: disagree with SNGPT?

[Bubblefish]

Assuming no overcalling:
This is the six outcomes I am thinking off:
1. Hero push and get called by another player and loose = 0 chips.
2. Hero push and get called by CO and win.
3. Hero push and get called by Btn and win.
4. Hero push and get called by SB and win.
5. Hero push and get called by BB and win.
6. Hero push and all folds.

Am i missing something?

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming no overcalling:
This is the six outcomes I am thinking off:
1. Hero push and get called by another player and loose = 0 chips.
2. Hero push and get called by CO and win.
3. Hero push and get called by Btn and win.
4. Hero push and get called by SB and win. I
5. Hero push and get called by BB and win.
6. Hero push and all folds.

Am i missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I see what you mean. But we don't need to overcomplicate things anyways. The key here is to analyze the NEXT hand, not the one we're dealt. In the next hand, our $EV drops like a stone if we fold, unless we pick up a premium hand, or it gets folded to us.

To make things simple, let's use real dollar values and assume it was a $55 buyin tourney, so we dont have to deal with percentages. Now we have a $EV of slightly more than the initial buyin, even if we push, around $57 or so. In the next hand, if we fold, this drops to $44. If we deal ourselves an average hand, say Q6o and call with it, it drops even further to $40, assuming someone pushed with a somewhat reasonable hand, say within 20-30% range. We gain a lot however if everybody folds. The question is: How often will everybody fold to us next hand? Probably not very often. Maybe 10% of the time. Which is not enough to compensate I think for the $EV loss.

[AMT]

the biggest thing here is that 97s doesnt play that poorly against calling ranges. youre short as [censored]. All in.

[riverspecialist]

If you survive the push and double up or pick up blinds, you still have to pay(semi important word choice) the big blind next hand. but if u fold and go allin on the bb and survive there is a lot of value in having "paid" 67% of the "cost" for the next orbit. This seems very important to me and i rarely hear it brought up. once your M is below 3 this effect becomes huge and fold equity becomes very player dependant.

if the table is loose and chips are moving then this is an easy fold.

if the table is tight and no one seems to want to get involved this seems like a push.

any normal table and this is close.

i personally just keep feeling like im not playing tight enough. id feel more comfortable going with the concensus of "push" if someone would mention the value of surviving and having ur bblind paid for.

[Scotty_12]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto any two card shove for me, because the next hand will be an auto any two card call for me, so let's take advantage of any FE we might have (which is bolstered by the fact that we are pushing from UTG, even though many of us will assign a wider range to a SS UTG shover, many of the horrible players we see don't).

The "desperado" UTG shove, top secret standard play!
In the next hand we will have 3 BB's. Any decent player will push ATC out of the SB into us. We have to call this shove with any 2 cards geting huge odds on the $.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think I would go as far to push ATC here

[Pudge714]

How is this thread so long. If you don't push here you are probably a mediocre sng player at best.

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
If you survive the push and double up or pick up blinds, you still have to pay(semi important word choice) the big blind next hand. but if u fold and go allin on the bb and survive there is a lot of value in having "paid" 67% of the "cost" for the next orbit. This seems very important to me and i rarely hear it brought up. once your M is below 3 this effect becomes huge and fold equity becomes very player dependant.

if the table is loose and chips are moving then this is an easy push.

if the table is tight and no one seems to want to get involved this is definitely a push.

any normal table and this is a push, too.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just some small corrections to your post

[Bubblefish]

Ok, I have made some more calculations on this hand, to try to determine the equity after Hero pushes. I have made the following assumptions:
- When Hero pushes, the calling ranges are: CO (16%), Btn (18%), SB (28%) and BB (35%). This results in Hero being called 67,76 % of the times when he pushes.
- When wining after getting called, I assume the chip distribution is the same as when Hero wins over BB.
- The chances of winning the original hand is determined by how well 97s is doing against the weighted average of all players calling ranges (20,7 %).

When Hero is getting called his probability of winning the hand is 35,57 %, for an equity of 21,99 %. When no one calls his push Hero have an equity of 17,16 %. This comes down to an weighted equity of 10,83 % ((35,57 %*67,76 %*21,99 %)+(32,24 %*17,16 %)) after a push. Comparing this to equity of 11,13 % when he folds, I get that pushing is -0,3 %. Not as bad as suggested by SNGPT (-0,9 %), but still negative. Obviously I have made a lot of assumptions, which may or maybe not is reasonable. So take this result with a large pinch of salt.

[GotQuads]

Thanks Bubblefish, to solve the problem completely however we'd have to estimate "adjusted" $EVs taking into account the BB we pay next hand.

The $EV for folding now drops substantially. On top of that, as several posters indicated, by folding we make the next hand an auto-call with any two which has negative expectation unless we happen to pick up a monster hand.

[Finnisher]

[ QUOTE ]
My calculations shows that Heros equity after this hand (as BB) is 11,13 %. This is indeed far away from the 13 % fold Equity suggested by SNGPT in the original hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
How much do you think other players' actions after Hero folds affects our EV? SNGWiz gives folding 13.46% with default ranges (this incl other players shoving). The most likely match up is SB-BB and if BB busts in that hand we skip the BB. Nice. Maybe +0.5%? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]