With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!

[rockin]

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Early in the Party 500k. I have no reads. All stacks are around 5000. UTG+1 opens to 170 (30/60), next to act calls, and I raise to 500 in middle position with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Remember I have the king of clubs). Folds around to them they both call.

Flop: (1500 ish) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checks to me I bet 1000. UTG folds, next guy calls.

Turn (3500 ish) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , he checks, I check behind.

River (still 3500 ish) offsuit Q. He bets 2000. I fold.

My thoughts on the hand to come... In the mean time, discuss!

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did you give any thought to a donkish bet on the turn (like 500). villain could possibly view this as 1) a value bet or 2)if he has a made hand, may check river in the hopes of inducing a bluff bet from you. this could be a scenario that would enable you to keep the pot small. if villain c/r's allin on the turn, then you have to decide if pot odds (3000 to call into a pot of 7000) warrant a call or not, based upon the range you can put villain on.

It's possible you are already drawing dead, and can dump and still leave yourself with 3000 chips. The difference between 3000 chips and 3500 is negligible (gigabet's blocks) and a stack of 3000 this early is certainly playable, but you also have a chance to win a pot of 4500, without conceding the hand on the turn. Now villain with Ax thinks you have CB with a pocket pair on an Ace flop or villain thinks his pocket pair JJ, TT, 99, maybe QQ is good over your pocket pair.

I think i like the donk turn bet.

[illegit]

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I don't like the check behind on the turn at all.

Fire another bet, and check behind on the river if you don't hit your flush.

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the check behind will certainly induce a river bluff from a lot of people

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Yes, but what good is a bluff-inducing check if you plan to fold on the river?

[Cactus Jack]

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I guess there are people who will play AJ this way, but I doubt they're still in the tournament at this point.

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This is probably the 1st 25 hands.

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Exactly why I question anyone putting villain on a range of hands WE would be playing. If you overvalue their hand or undervalue, you're in trouble either way. They don't all play like we do, and they aren't all donkeys. At this point, we can't know which is which.

Likewise, the size of the reraise PF makes a difference? If he's got a hand, he calls. If he's a donkey, he calls.

Raising alerts a good player we've either got a hand, or we know we have position on them. Raising doesn't tell a donkey anything. Again, we don't know. If he's a good player, we're toast. If he's a donkey, we've tossed away a bunch of chips.

As played it played out, it was as if positions were reversed. You either put pressure on them, or play small ball. Anything in between costs you chips.

[TripDaddy]

I disagree with the fold on the river, only because I am a fish and tend to pay off river bets... Actually, I disagree for 3 reasons -

1. The size of this bet screams bluff, if he had QQQ or the flush or two pair, he would have bet something a bit smaller in hopes of getting a call. 2K is too big in relation to your 3.5k stack. He does NOT want a call.

2. He could easily have AJ (albeit terribly played, but this is party) or KK. Once you checked the turn, he could have convinced himself that you really did not have the Ace and took a shot at you.

3. I see way too many donkish plays like this with even worse hands. If you told me he flipped over TTc or JJc, I would not be surprised.

Of course, he could have AQc and just overbet the nuts. In reality, this is a VERY close call either way. Good post.

[bruce]

Great hand to discuss.

Preflop I think you should raise more or flat call. The stacks are deep and I don't think any of the callers are going to fold. The raise will most of the time buy you the button.

Alarm bells will be going off in my head when I am called on the flop. WTF doe my opponent have? We'll assume he is not
a lunatic. Reasonable hands to put him on are a weaker Ace,
a flush draw, an oddly played set (maybe he's afraid of you
flopping a set of Aces), or a poorly played big pair.

With the flush coming on the turn I think a check is mandatory. Getting c/r'ed is catastrophic. If the stacks were smaller a bet might make more sense. There is no way
I will bet the turn.

Now on the river things get very interesting. Your opponent
bets 2000. What reasonable hands can he have? Is your pair of Aces good? I think it's very difficult to arrive at the best answer. On one hand I can see your average player taking a card off on the flop and with your turn check thinking their pair of Jacks,Kings, or weaker Aces are good. On the other hand if I'm against a more sophisticated player I don't expect him to show anything less than a flush or AQ with the Ace of clubs. All things considering I probably fold. If I'm wrong I don't think I'm wrong by much. If you fold your stack is not decimated and you still do have chips
to play with. If you call and lose you have lost 2/3 of your chips.

I think another way perhaps to approach this is to take into consideration how large this tournament is. The event began with roughly 3000 players. If I call and win I now have a much bigger stack to work with. If I'm wrong well I probably would not have won anyway so what the hell? I personally don't play like that, but I'm sure there are plenty of people who do.

Hope I'm not rambling.

Bruce

[Art Vandelay]

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Dude, this is Party. You have TPTK. Stacks aren't really that deep. These donks will never fold top pair, or even middle pair half the time. I probably just bet the turn.

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I agree, sort of. My cash game play has definitely been affecting my tournament play lately, so I have been folding top pair more often.

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Ansky,

I was going to say that this sounds like a cash game type hand much more than a tourney hand. I understand your reasoning and especially with a Q falling on the river (getting on of the hands that were behind there) I can see this as a possible fold. I personally would not fold but I would certainly consider it.

Do you not think 99-JJ could be in villian's range? Calling what seeems like a standard cbet on the flop, then it's checked behind on the turn so villian figures to bet on river. Perhaps not, but it would seem to me this is certainly a possibility (a questionable play, but a possibility nonetheless).

[grandgnu]

WHAT THESE TWO SAID

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As you played it, I think you have to call the river. What can you beat? In my experience, probably anything he's got. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think all you guys who are putting him on hands are overestimating the opponent.

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1. The size of this bet screams bluff, if he had QQQ or the flush or two pair, he would have bet something a bit smaller in hopes of getting a call. 2K is too big in relation to your 3.5k stack. He does NOT want a call.

2. He could easily have AJ (albeit terribly played, but this is party) or KK. Once you checked the turn, he could have convinced himself that you really did not have the Ace and took a shot at you.

3. I see way too many donkish plays like this with even worse hands. If you told me he flipped over TTc or JJc, I would not be surprised.

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[illegit]

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I guess there are people who will play AJ this way, but I doubt they're still in the tournament at this point.

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This is probably the 1st 25 hands.

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Exactly why I question anyone putting villain on a range of hands WE would be playing. If you overvalue their hand or undervalue, you're in trouble either way. They don't all play like we do, and they aren't all donkeys. At this point, we can't know which is which.


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I agree. I see too many people defaulting to assuming villain is reasonable. In tourneys with fields this large (over 2000 players right?) and many satellite winners what percentage are ACTUALLY reasonable players? Probably not even 50%, right? But we'll assume 50% just for an easy number.

So I'd say make the analysis of a reasonable player's possible holdings like many have done. In which case we're behind almost everything in a reasonable range. Then add a 20% possibility it's something unreasonable that we beat (20% and not 50% because even unreasonable players accidentally make reasonable plays, AND they could have unreasonable holdings that beat us like weak Ax 2-pair hands, or any2suited hands). So it's probably close.

[Vuron00]

I may be results oriented, but I had a hand almost exactly like this in the same tourney with about 900 left.

Villain was a LAG bordering on maniac and had been open pushing from any postion for 20BB. I had caught him a few hands before in a bluff.

Same situation and betting patterns. Villain had flopped a set of 3's and I payed him off on his river bet after check/check on the turn.

I think a river call on this comes down to reads. With no reads, I'd tend to make the call earlier in the tourney.

[Ansky]

Dear everyone who says the turn check induced a river bluff:

Not one of you has named a single hand which he could have that he would be "bluffing" with. He called my flop bet, he doesn't have air. I recognize that the outline of this line (bet flop, check behind on turn, face a river bet) is very often a bluff, but given the board it is very unlikely. In all the responses in this thread, 0 people have actually come up with a possible hand which he could have bluffed with.