With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Ansky,

I think the size of your preflop raise, to about 1/10 of your stacks, obligates you to call on the river. If the pot wasn't so large preflop, my analysis would be a bit different. I don't like pushing the turn, because you would be giving your opponent the right odds to call your preflop raise with any pair, as he would be paying 500 to play for your whole stack of 5000, and I don't think he's going to put you on a flush and fold any hand that's ahead of you, at least not very often. If your opponents are going to call raises preflop of 10% of their stack with AcQc, or Jc10c then you have to pay them something when they make their flush for calling that large a raise preflop and that large a flop bet. By calling the 2000 on the river, your opponent playing any pair for trips value paid 500 preflop to play for roughly 3500 of your chips, 1 in 7 exactly. That's almost but not quite the right odds for them to call preflop, but sometimes you'll have an overpair and will make a higher set, which is why you really want to make about 10X as much as you have to pay to see a flop with any pair. Factor in the possibility that he is on pure bluff, or has KK and is putting you on QQ or JJ, and I think a call makes the most sense.

Holdemphile

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to figure out the best way to say this... You logic is step by step in the reverse direction. You started with the end result and worked back to the beginning. It is a sound way to maintain consistent metagame, but in this case I think it's a bit silly. Overall though, it does help me think about this situation as a whole better, and how best to control my opponents +EV range when considering FTOP.

[Exitonly]

yea my bad, i'm just used to not defending my [censored] anymore.

i just felt like AJ (and worse) and non-setted PP's would call the flop often enough, that it would be a call on the end. I dunno really, i think it's probably close.. you only need to be good a bit more than 25% it should be close to that.

Plus, calling is fun.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Ansky,

I think the size of your preflop raise, to about 1/10 of your stacks, obligates you to call on the river. If the pot wasn't so large preflop, my analysis would be a bit different. I don't like pushing the turn, because you would be giving your opponent the right odds to call your preflop raise with any pair, as he would be paying 500 to play for your whole stack of 5000, and I don't think he's going to put you on a flush and fold any hand that's ahead of you, at least not very often. If your opponents are going to call raises preflop of 10% of their stack with AcQc, or Jc10c then you have to pay them something when they make their flush for calling that large a raise preflop and that large a flop bet. By calling the 2000 on the river, your opponent playing any pair for trips value paid 500 preflop to play for roughly 3500 of your chips, 1 in 7 exactly. That's almost but not quite the right odds for them to call preflop, but sometimes you'll have an overpair and will make a higher set, which is why you really want to make about 10X as much as you have to pay to see a flop with any pair. Factor in the possibility that he is on pure bluff, or has KK and is putting you on QQ or JJ, and I think a call makes the most sense.

Holdemphile

[/ QUOTE ]


This kind of logic just blew my mind. i'm not saying its bad, just completely not how i think of the game.

I never think about my current actions in relation to the odds i gave him preflop. I dont really care/think ebout if he was 'correct to call', i just think about getting money in when i want it in/taking the pot when i can.

whatever i'm not making anyn sense

[Prime Time]

I think inducing a bluff and not calling is bad.
You should have bet the turn, and check behind on the river if you were looking for an excuse to fold.

[mic_check12]

I think you played the hand perfectly ansky. i play it the same. betting the turn and getting checkraised is not fun. then i think you are beat on the river. he mighta missed his c/rz on the turn with flopped set or turned flush or have Aq whcih just connected with the river. nh

Matt20

[CASINOCASINO]

I think I call here because the only possible holding I think villan can hold here that beats you is 2 pair(AQ).

[BigPoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
Name a hand that he can have that he could have gotten to the river with.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ, A10, A9, etc.....especially if he had the Ace of Clubs.

[Victorvdb]

The way I see hands like these is as follows:

UTG+1 raises to 30/60, barring no additional reads that could well be AT+, KQ+, 77+. I'd expect him to limp weaker hands. UTG+2 calls, and I'd tighten up the range for him - AJ+, KQ+, 99+. Both of these ranges might be a bit too loose, but I have little respect for party players. Also, with no additional reads, early in the tournament, I think you can EXCLUDE AK and QQ+ for the UTG+2.

They see a reraise from you, following their own line of thinking - that means JJ+ and AK.

Enter flop.

They check to you, you bet, they still think hmm could be QQ or KK or something and they call. Aces can be excluded here I think as they would've reraised preflop. Also 22/33 seems very unlikely. If they had AK here, I'd expect a reraise as well, though I've seen calls there too. And as for flushdraws, in the range I noted there's not much range for a flushdraw... except a hand like AQcc, where again I'd expect AQcc to reraise (and also AJcc and ATcc). KQcc is an impossibility due to obvious reasons. A plain call would be something I'd expect AT-AQ to do, regardless of whether they have Ac. I wouldn't expect a JJ or TT or so to call this bet, and rather just fold to it as they know the ace is spooky.

This is why I think I would bet the turn. There is no reason to assume you're behind (yet) from my point of view and you can still expect a call from an ace with T-Qc, and Ac T-Qx. I'd expect a made flush to reraise you here as well, from fear of you having AA and the board pairing. If you get reraised on the turn then you can re-evaluate if it's worth it to you to hang on to the rest of your chips, or to gamble it up for the club on the river / him not having an ace high flush yet.

As for your current line, by checking the turn, you present him with the opportunity to bluff. But, as you have already said it's unlikely he's bluffing on this board - that is if he is thinking you're bluffing. If he has a hand like AT / AJ I doubt he would bet it, with it becoming a weak value bet, because you could very well have QQ with Qc, and hit set on river. So he's willing to bet into made flush board, and with the rivered Q, and from all previous analysis I'd say he has AQ or the flush. I'd expect the average party donk just to check/call AJ-AT here thinking you bluffed again with KK. On the other hand, I'm at work and got disrupted thrice during typing this so please point out any logical mistakes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

All of this changes wildly when I get more/less respect for the players at hand, other than "I'm assuming he's a partydonk because i have no reads"

[mshalen]

As a former weak tight I just wanted to add that if I was the villan and caught my flush I would have checked on the turn then I would have bet on the river. Sometimes I see (and understand) people play things exactly the way I would have in the past. Ansky, you played it right.

[A_PLUS]

My problem with your line (and I don't think you are necessarily wrong), is that it really comes down to a preflop read.

Lets say, for arguements sake that the guy in the middle decided to call a raise with a decent hand, say A9s. At what point in this hand, do you think that his line doesn't fit this hand?

I don't know, I dont think weaker aces are as rare as you are assuming. Regardless, this would be a borderline call, but a call I would probably make.