With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!

[billyjex]

Dude, this is Party. You have TPTK. Stacks aren't really that deep. These donks will never fold top pair, or even middle pair half the time. I probably just bet the turn.

[Ansky]

To everyone:

This is going to come off as very pretentious, and I will sound like a big [censored], but I'm going to say it anyway. I am not a random donk with 4 posts that comes in with my results oriented thinking asking for generic hand help. I am attempting to generate a discussion about the possible ways to maximize against the most obvious hand ranges that we can come up with for the villain.

Exit, you know that I value your advice in any form, even generic form. But I ask that you go a little further than: "i think i'm pushing the turn. and if you check behind, i think you ahve to call the river bet." While this would suffice for a lot of people who post hands where they simply want to be told what to do, this will not suffice for me.

To all who say once I check the turn, I'm sort of obligated to call the river: Normally I would agree with you that when you check behind with top pair, you should be calling the river bet because by checking you are inducing bluffs. However, in this spot you'd be pretty hard pressed to think of a hand that he could possibly have by the river that would bluff. A flush draw got there on the turn, and there are no straight draws possible (aside from something like 46 or whatever). Because there are no missed draws, and he could not have been floating with junk OOP, there are almost no possible hands that this guy could have that would bluff the river... UNLESS, he is a total moron donkey (which he very well could be). If you think this is the case often enough, then state that. However, if we give our opponent credit at least for having a human brain, than you can find almost 0 hands that would bluff the river.

As for whether he could be value betting with a worse hand: I do not think so. AT, AJ are pretty slim possibilities, and a river bet has very little value with those hands.

On the river, I thought to myself: I can only beat a bluff. Check/call flop, check turn, lead river is so often the betting pattern for a bluff, so I thought I was going to call. Then I realized there were almost no possible bluffing hands. After this I asked myself if he could be value betting any worse hands? I figured most likely not, so I folded.

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, this is Party. You have TPTK. Stacks aren't really that deep. These donks will never fold top pair, or even middle pair half the time. I probably just bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, sort of. My cash game play has definitely been affecting my tournament play lately, so I have been folding top pair more often.

[THEOSU]

The trouble with betting the turn here is what if villain c/r all in? What's the plan there? Those that are advocating betting the turn seem to think that the sequence, from the turn on, will go:

Check/bet/call...check

Is that really this likely on this board?

[Ansky]

The stack sizes make it so I'm comitted to calling a turn push if I bet.

[stevepa]

I really hate betting the turn here. What worse hand calls? What better hands fold? Basically a bet only gets money from Acx and you'll get that on the river anyways. Now to the river, I call without thinking about it. But then you want me to think, so...

Guy cold calls pf and then calls again. Range: Any pair, bunch of suited connectors (less of these than pairs, probably only the better ones) and maybe AJ/AQ, KQ. He check-calls a 2/3 pot bet on the flop. Range: set, AQ/AJ, flush draw. Occasionally some kind of JJ hand if he's absolutely awful. Turn changes nothing. River: well, based on his flop hand range, you beat basically AJ. Maybe ATs or QQ-TT if he's awful. There is basically no chance you're ahead here 1/3. Good fold.

Steve

[freehat]

Ansky,

I checking the turn is standard especially, with the K clubs for pot-control reasons and this is WA/WB situation.

Onto the river I think this is really close given that it is pretty hard for the villain to make it here without at least a pair. But I though before the river that villains mosty likely hands were Aq, Aj, At. For him to have a large range of flush possibilities he would need to be pretty loose pre-flop so that expands his hand range as well. In a cash game this can be a fold against some opponents, but against a random tourney donk I'm making this close call.

[nincomepoop]

Ansky -

I will do my very best trying to analyze this hand and come up with a range that would warrant a fold from you. In this situation, I think many times the villian who cold called 2 raises (I presume) is going to show you a set of queens made on the turn, or a suited AQ of clubs for the flush, or an offsuit AQ for 2 pair, and a few SCs. TPTK is not a hand you want to play for your entire stack, in a deep stack tournament, regardless of whether or not they are donks...this just opens the probability that you're beat by a vast array of hands. A true donk will call here with 33+ and could very well have made a smaller set. I think folding when you did is a good option. I just don't want to find out if the LAG villian checked his flush, set, 2 pair on the turn. There are a myriad of hands that smoke you right now. A flush seems very present, he checks it on the turn, hoping you bet your ace, you check behind, the queen comes off, now he's figuring you may have made 2 pair, he's leading out, looking for a raise. This is how I interpret it, and I think Ansky is dead on with the, "there's really no hand he can bluff with on the river" analysis.

[stevepa]

Given the preflop I think AQ is more likely than AJ which is WAYYYYYY more likely than AT. Add in the sets and flushes (QJs-98s and maybe QTs) and I don't think calling the river is good.

Steve

[TheNewf]

Checking behind on the turn is standard deep stack poker is it not? The river is a difficult decision but I agree that you're only beating a bluff and it's hard to figure what hands he's bluffing with. I think you're beat here often enough that this is a good laydown.