Moving the lines by "hot" cappers "free" posts, beware - Page 3

trixtrix · #21 03-08-2007, 10:47 PM

okay let me repeat my post in a different way. my contention is that in general, free picks are exactly 0ev. your original post seems to indicate free picks are -ev, this is wrong. b/c if that is correct, then in a zero arbitrage world, the inverse must be true.

in other words, fading the free picks must be +ev/profitable. does that make sense to you? that you can make free money by fading free picks?

in other words, when you see a free pick, you have no idea if it's +ev capper's right pick, +ev capper's wrong pick, -ev capper's right pick, -ev capper's wrong pick, a random capper's nose pick etc... so you might as well as assume it's absolutely random in the first place

Thremp · #22 03-08-2007, 10:57 PM

trix,

Just because a capper is not a winner does not mean you can be a winner by fading him.

trixtrix · #23 03-08-2007, 11:07 PM

exactly

sirio11 · #24 03-08-2007, 11:33 PM

Ok trix, now I get your point. But I can't find in my OP where I indicated so. I think I did that in some other thread, but I was half-joking there.

Following your example of a zero arb world; if you agree that it's +EV for a scumbag capper to post wrong picks and make the public follow him. Where did that +EV come from?

[ QUOTE ]
so you might as well as assume it's absolutely random in the first place

[/ QUOTE ]

mmmm, this is not always true, lets suppose some 50% dude (with a 60% boss, syndicate behind him) convince a forum he's the next big thing and he is unscrupulous and it's going to take advantage of this fact. Most of the time he'll be posting random picks, but once in a while his boss orders him to post the wrong pick, if you are following him in all his picks, of course you're doing worse than flipping a coin.

The fact we don't know if the information is good or bad, does not make the information random.

trixtrix · #25 03-09-2007, 12:21 AM

actually thremp is right, i'm wrong

my example only works in a perfect world without juice, w/ juice it's theoretically possible to for both sides to be -ev. however, the claim that you should treat most free picks same as flipping a coin is still valid.

Thremp · #26 03-09-2007, 12:29 AM

trix,

Yep. Your analogy holds as they are no better or worse than a monkey and darts.

On a side note: I was watching Cathouse on HBO and one of the hookers doesn't wanna bash random dudes. WTF?

beetman · #27 03-09-2007, 03:23 PM

That aside, the other problem is that if a handicapper acquires too large a following, the lines will move almost immediately and it will become very, very difficult to get down at the suggested number, i.e. Dr. Bob in CFB this year.

Fezzik did pretty poorly in football in 2005, but from the beginning of this year, it was still pretty tough to get down on his NFL totals. There were times I saw a play only 5 minutes after he posted and the line was already gone, even at slow moving books.