Moving the lines by "hot" cappers "free" posts, beware

[sirio11]

Please, let me know why is your take about the following:


I have seen how the line is moved after some "hot" capper post a "free" pick in gambling forums with a lot of traffic.

If the movement of half a point in college basketball is worth like 10c; I think it would be profitable for the capper to post the wrong pick.

Just for example purposes. Lets suppose he wants to bet Northern Arizona, the line is Weber State-2, and lets suppose in the long run he wins 55% of the time betting NA+2. So that's a 5.5% ROI if the lines he bets are -110.

Now he post a wrong pick, he says Weber-2 is a Winner !!!!!, no analysis at all, since he only cares about winning money and for some reason, he wants all the people in the forum to be WINNERS !!!!

Since he's pretty "HOT", the forum moves the line to Weber -2.5.

Now he can bet NA+2.5 -110 or NA+2 +100 and this means in the long run, instead of a 5.5% ROI, he will have a 10% ROI in this game (basically he's paying no rake in the new line) !!!!!

Don't you think this is a pretty good incentive for him (or them, think syndicate), damn, almost doubling the ROI !!!!

Comments welcome

[Thremp]

Yes.

You don't even need to be right very often. Look at Ace-Ace. He's got a hooge following and you can see some of the line moves during CFB from his picks.

Not to mention using Kelly, you'd get more of a benefit shaving just a little bit off public record.

[GooseHinson]

There won't be a long run...tip too many losers and nobody will listen anymore.

[stickneymarc]

Or when gambling you could actually think about the wager you are going to place rather than blindly placing wager based on a post made, regardless of how successful the person making the post is. In sports gambling you can statistically back up almost any wager. If you follow games well enough and have a good sports IQ and some common sense, you can do fairly well over time. To crunch numbers or follow the hot poster isn't in my opinion giving much of an edge. The potential to manipulate a line isn't a new concept. It's done everyday on the stock market. I get faxes at work everyday with hot worthless stock that if you can bump it a couple of cents can make somebody a lot of money at others expense.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
There won't be a long run...tip too many losers and nobody will listen anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mmmmm, this is not true and it's fairly easy to cover those "losers" in a long season.

[NajdorfDefense]

If Warren Buffett said he was putting $10bn into a stock, would you buy it?
Peter Lynch?
John Neff? Anyone?

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There won't be a long run...tip too many losers and nobody will listen anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mmmmm, this is not true and it's fairly easy to cover those "losers" in a long season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its certainly theoretically possible that a hot capper could sandbag the occasional game intentionally.

i.e. for arguments sake the capper knows he is a 60% winner. on 2% of the games, the capper intentionally posts the wrong side and plays the opposite once the line shifts.

The capper increases his own win percent to say 63% (whatever the line move on that 2% is worth) and the public gets ~58%. Everyone is generally happy because the capper is still posting winners.

But there's no way someone like Fezzik for example can post 45% winners for long and expect to continue to sway the lines.

People follow because they see something working. They get burned, they are quick to retreat in my experience.

All comes back to the simple maxim that free picks are worth 100% of what you're paying for them.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
If Warren Buffett said he was putting $10bn into a stock, would you buy it?
Peter Lynch?
John Neff? Anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could find out before the fact, likely so.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If Warren Buffett said he was putting $10bn into a stock, would you buy it?
Peter Lynch?
John Neff? Anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could find out before the fact, likely so.

[/ QUOTE ]

You find out the next day. WMT is at same price.
You...?


edit: This is not to say blindly follow any random capper, quite the opposite, most people are clueless, of course. eventually anyone will run hot.

[Thremp]

Loose analogy, but I get what you are saying. I was trying to make an equally as cryptic point.