KTo from the Btn

[halpgr]

I like a raise on the flop. BB and UTG seem to want to call along paddding the pot in the middle, so they'll probably put in some more. A free card would be nice too.

[tyler_cracker]

no one has said to raise preflop, so i will say it:

raise preflop!

[Big Folder]

raises for free card

[VirgilStarkwell]

[ QUOTE ]
no one has said to raise preflop, so i will say it:

raise preflop!

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this 100% for sure? Pokertracker says I win with KTo 30% of the time from the from the button. So I'd have a slight advantage if BB and/or SB called the raise, but I'd be at a disadvantage if both blinds folded, as far as pot equity goes. If I just called, then I'd have a clear pot equity edge into the flop, plus I saved a SB to use for a free card play if I flop a draw. Seems about break even to raise preflop, or am I missing something?

I think raising the flop here is definitely correct. There are probably a couple spades out already, but the overcard and bdsd make up for that. Your pot equity is over 30% easy and the great thing is that you know everyone is going to call your raise.

On a side note, over the past couple months, I've noticed a lot of otherwise never-bluff LP players make bluffs on paired and 1-suited flops, especially from EP. I was wondering if there was an article about it in highroller or some other mag, and now everyone's doing it. I'm sure it's a really high EV bluff for most LPs. Anyways, if I was playing this hand I think I'd be less worried about SB having spades and more worried about the callers.

[nerdking]

agreed with Tyler. raise preflop, raise flop, call down the turn and fold the river if you seriously miss.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this 100% for sure? Pokertracker says I win with KTo 30% of the time from the from the button. So I'd have a slight advantage if BB and/or SB called the raise, but I'd be at a disadvantage if both blinds folded, as far as pot equity goes. If I just called, then I'd have a clear pot equity edge into the flop, plus I saved a SB to use for a free card play if I flop a draw. Seems about break even to raise preflop, or am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, this is nonsense.

your PT winrate has nothing to do with your pot equity, and it is baffling to me how you could ever think they were related.

and then, yeah, it just gets weirder from there.

[Boggy Depot]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this every time.

- there are 3 opponents who have already put in one bet each. You make your flush 1/3 of the time so even though you don't have the A you probably still like for this flop to get capped as long as nobody folds.

- You may get offered a free card on the turn if you raise. Sometimes you will take it (e.g. turn is a non-spade A) and sometimes you will bet (turn is a king).

- The raise disguises your draw a little bit. Opponents who do think but don't know about things such as pot equity will rather put you on something like QJ then a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if you get reraised and the other two fold out? Now your equity is out the window. By just calling you KNOW you're getting good equity on the bet.

[VirgilStarkwell]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this 100% for sure? Pokertracker says I win with KTo 30% of the time from the from the button. So I'd have a slight advantage if BB and/or SB called the raise, but I'd be at a disadvantage if both blinds folded, as far as pot equity goes. If I just called, then I'd have a clear pot equity edge into the flop, plus I saved a SB to use for a free card play if I flop a draw. Seems about break even to raise preflop, or am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, this is nonsense.

your PT winrate has nothing to do with your pot equity, and it is baffling to me how you could ever think they were related.

and then, yeah, it just gets weirder from there.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hmm.... I guess I just found a (mental)leak?
I was thinking that I could use the winrate to estimate my share in the preflop pot. So in this case if I'm expecting to win 30% of the time, then I expect to get 30% of every bet that goes into the pot. So I would only raise if I knew there would be 3+ callers, otherwise I'd call.

If I spend a bet to raise preflop and only get 2 callers, then I'm not so happy because I'm only about 2:1 to win. So I can save that bet and possibly spend it on a flop raise instead if I have a bigger edge. Probably a bad way to put it-- I mean that I'd rather make the raise when I have a big edge than when I have a small/break even edge.

So obviously I'm thinking about this wrong... help?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
no one has said to raise preflop, so i will say it:

raise preflop!

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. I'd usually limp. You already own the button and there is an early position limper, so your edge isn't as large.

[CrMenace]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
damn. i like raising but this will cause villains to fold correctly unless they have the X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in which case they'll raise correctly.
but then again, they make loads of mistakes so maybe you're not afraid of some correct play from them.

i say raise. if you get 3bet, call down or fold the turn UI.

k-high flush doesn't lose to A-high flush very often, so don't get too scared.

but i'm not entirely sure what to do here. giving poker advice is hard.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.
If you land your flush, the board will be 4-flush, it'll be even more obvious than it already is that some one might have a flush, and you might not make many bets. The question is if you want to build your pot up now or wait until you have it. That's a bit more complicated. I'll leave the answer to some one else.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one correctly folds anything even if you raise. That said, you should raise. You own a little less than 35%, but certainly more than your share of 25%. You also don't need implied odds to make this a good raise... so your not overly worried if you can "make many bets" or not.