outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]

If you are against 2 overpairs you will lose 32% of the time to an over set the times you flop a set, not 40%, I believe. Anyway, it’s likely that he’s only against one over-pair, exactly AA.

We are considering this. Normally the rule of thumb is implied odd of 10 to 1, to account for it, rather than the 7.5 to 1 odds of flopping a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this 32% if we just run 5 cards out there? Or, does it mandate that the J comes on the flop first? I mean, if the board comes A72 - T - J, it won't hurt us, because we'd just fold on the flop.

So, what does the 32% mean, exactly?

J

[Gabe]

if the 1st card is a J, at least one of the other four is an A or K.

you know how to figure this stuff out. what's the matter, did i screw up or something?

[Gabe]

oh yeah, thanks for the table. it worked out great. death donkey smoked a cigar and threw up on it, though.

[Tommy Angelo]

"I think the decision is much closer than most people seem to believe it is here."

A thread like this comes to existence when: 1) The decision in question is a close one 2) The contributor's to the thread think it isn't.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
oh yeah, thanks for the table. it worked out great. death donkey smoked a cigar and threw up on it, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

trip report?

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oh yeah, thanks for the table. it worked out great. death donkey smoked a cigar and threw up on it, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

trip report?

[/ QUOTE ]

Gabe's sarcasm is hardly noticeable in person, on the internet its impossible to realize. I only do that in Vegas anyway.

-DeathDonkey

[mike l.]

the only thing dd spewed at the party was his chips.

[LarsVegas]

Quick calculation. I assume Asian guy is in small blind, so will be 13 bets in the pot when the flop comes if you put in another 2, you are getting 5.5-to-1. You will flop a set one in 8.5, that will hold up against the asian guy about 84% of the time (in between set-under-set, flush/straight to him).

The 16% of the times Asian guy wins after mike flops his set, he will probably earn about the same as mike will average in implied odds on his sets, giving mike credit for being a far superior player here (not to mention that mike will usually have close to the nuts when jacks are ahead while he will easily spot danger if an Ace or a King arrives). This effectively means that the 16% wipes off 16 of the percentages on the 84 when it comes to counting in implied odds. This means that from 68% of the times mike flops a set, he will have to earn the implied odds warranted to make this a call.

This is desperately close and I agree with mike, it seems to be a case of a small mistake being followed up by another small mistake - even to the point of running a significant risk of making a huge mistake later on in the hand (such as a sucker payoff on the river after possibly correctly chasing a few tainted outs to that point).

Variance plays a factor also, of course it does. When putting in a whole big bet on a basically completely breakeven proposition with a 10bb swing between regaining back that big bet once in ten and doing it tenfold then - well these plays are a recipe for extreme swings.

Those who say easy call are running to good, it very possible to flop a set in this specific "fold or drop - huge payoff if hit" situation like 1 in 5 over the course of an entire year (or say, flopping it 130 times from 800 instead of 800 - those extra 30 will be an extra 300 big bets). These experiences can blur the judgement, the numbers clearly state that it's very close, and at that point, mike l's description of his personal feelings on the hand being "not caring because im certain im against AA or maybe KK and dont want to be bothered with such technicalities." should swing it into a fold.


best wishes

lars

[LarsVegas]

The only additional aspect of the math calculation, is when mike l flops a drawing hand where he has a significant overlay on continuing.

This can be calculated through;

1. how often and how will these flops appear?

2. how much would mike (or The Theoretical King of Holdem % Odds) pay a fairy or whatever, to be allowed to call opponents bet w/obvious aces to continue.

As I can see it, except for flopping a jack, there are the following flops;

1. Clear 10-outer (T-9-8). With 14sb in the pot after asian dudes flop bet and a 3.5-to-1 on completing the straight, this spot is actually worth giving about 2.5 small bets to the fairy unless I am completely mistaken (the draw is actually worth even more, since it will be a clear overlay on continuing on the turn too).

2. Ten-outer/six-outer Q-T-9. Worth about 2 small bets. Redraw possibility if we get there. Also holds some tiny additional value as an overlay call beyond the turn.

3. K-Q-T, 8-outer w/redraws or 6-outer. Worth about 1.4 small bets.

4. Six-outers, T-8-7, 9-8-7. Worth about 1 small bet.

5. Three-suited flop with gives J-J a 50% shot of drawing live to a flush against the higher pair (4.5 outs - worth less than 1 small bet).

I am not sure how often excactly flops arrives that gives opponent more than two outs to beat aces and thus a clear overlay on continuing, but I am guessing about 13% of the time?

Hmm. I am sat here right now wondering if actually these situations swings it into a pretty easy call...

lars