Foxwoods 10-25, straight draw on a 2flush board

[Blizzardbaum]

call flop and reevaluate on the turn. there are a lot of cards you could bluff at.

[Well_TiMeD]

FF is he really priced into a call here?

[mindless]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but after you checkraise you've got:
3300-125-1200 = 1975 left,
and there's 525+2400+1975 = 4900 in the pot to win
so you've got to be right 1975/4900 % of the time to win = 40% of the time. (Which is what you said)

Twodimes has you at:
70-30 to any a pair higher than your 9
71-29 to a flush draw with an overcard to your 9
coinflipping with a flush draw that doesn't have an overcard to your heart.

I'd say if you checkraise you have to fold to a push. Random crap like 5h6h just doesn't make up a high enough percentage of his range unless my math is off.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but after you checkraise you've got:
3300-125-1200 = 1975 left,
and there's 525+2400+1975 = 4900 in the pot to win
so you've got to be right 1975/4900 % of the time to win = 40% of the time. (Which is what you said)

[/ QUOTE ]

Your formula is wrong. I have to win a little less than 29% of the time for this call to be profitable (1975/(1975+4910)). (Think about it this way: if I was exactly a 2-1 dog, I would only have to win 1 time in 3 to break even, not one time in 2, which is what your formula implies).

Here I am probably slightly worse than 2-1 against his range of hands, but I am getting about 2.5 - 1.

Against his range of hands, I think a call is correct (not by a lot).

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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As for your assumptions... 1) I don't think villain has ATC here if he's as strong as his reputation because he won't cbet 4-handed unless he is reasonably strong. This is AQ/KQ at a minimum.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is laughably wrong:3 limp/callers are not much to worry about when you have position. A good lag has no problems betting into many opponents if they're weak enough.


[/ QUOTE ]

FF, From villain's perspective, his table image, the combination of 3 limp/callers and the extremely draw heavy flop, I think Villain would be especially wary of cbetting lite here. Obviously, a good lag will bet into opponents when weak if he/she believes the pot can be bought, but there is a big difference between being a good lag and spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

a) I think people fold in this spot more often than you think OOP
b) He doesn't have to be c-betting lite here: TT/JJ for example is an easy bet here against players who aren't going to play back at you with worse hands (which is probably how villain views everyone in the hand). Saying AQ/KQ at a minimum is his range for betting here is just silly

[creedofhubris]

1) quit dicking around with 98o

2) the flop is raise is poor precisely because you don't know how to react to a push

3) I think you're right that a call is slightly +EV; get ready for unlimited action for the rest of the night when you flip those two babies over

[raptor517]

the problem with playing oop against people like this is that when u do something silly like cehck raise with a straight draw on a board like this, they are SHOVING almost any flush draw or KJ or J9 type hand they have, or any overpair, etc, especially if hes as aggro as you say. i dont like a CR one bit. folding flop is fine, as is check calling, maybe bluffing flush outs. holla

[BobboFitos]

#1 checkraise obv..

#2 if you want to gamble..

[Nezzar]

[ QUOTE ]
(he raised with 52s one hand).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is standard now a days. the true lags raise with 5-2o.

as for the hand obv. call and bluff with
your stack when flush hits.