pocket 4s in a turbo

[jay_shark]

Goldmund , i'm assuming that villian will almost certainly call .

I can show you mathematically why the stop and go play is more effective .

[Goldmund]

Jayshark wrote: [ QUOTE ]
I can show you mathematically why the stop and go play is more effective .

[/ QUOTE ]

I challenge you to do that for this specific situation. I don't think it would work out assuming effective stacks are 18 big blinds and A) Hero calls the preflop raise of (to)3.6 big blinds and moves all-in on any flop B) Villain would call an all-in reraise w two overcards to Hero's 44 and will call all-in if he pairs up.

It wont work because Hero wins 7.2 Big Blinds 2/3 of the time when he fires on the flop and Villain has missed. This nets him 3.6 big blinds compared to his starting stack. One third of the time Hero fires again and loses 14.6 big blinds when Villain pairs up and hero does not suck out. This leads to a total loss of 18 big blinds. You'd have to accomodate an extra 1 in 8 when Hero hits his set and wins the whole enchillada as well. So there is my challenge! I repeat: I think the stacks are too big/the preflop raise too small for the stop-and-go to be effective here. Goldmund

[jay_shark]

I worked it out and believe now that pushing is better but if villian had around 800 chips then stop and go would be the best choice . .

If you push all in and he calls , you will be at best a coin flip . Lets say you have a 50 % chance of winning the flip .

Ev= 900*0.5-850*0.5= 25 . That is , you win half of your bb back .

Now if you use the stop and go play watch what happens to your Ev .

You call an additional 130 which means there is 360 in the pot and villian has 720 chips remaining .

Ev(s and g | he folds ) = 360*(2/3)=240 Since if he doesn't hit and he has two overcards , he doesn't have the correct odds to continue .

Ev(s and g | he calls ) = 850*1/3 = 283.33 (283>240)

I've also simplified the problem because there will be times when you hit your set on the flop when villian calls , and there will be times when you suck out when you have the worst of it .

My intuition was slightly off but the decision is still a close one .

[Goldmund]

Your calculation is off I think Jay, let me summarize: Let's agree the all-in preflop is ev-neutral if villain has overcards, so we don't have to bother with that. That leads to the conclusion that whether we take it or not is simply a matter of taste.

Putting it real simple whether to stop-and-go or not comes down to this, disregarding set and re-suck scenarios: 1/3 of the time you're gonna lose 18 big blinds in the stop-and-go betting sequence and 2/3 of the time you're gonna win the 3.6 big blinds Villain put in preflop. Thats the net result of the stop-and-go. I dont see any doubt that the all-in is preferable preflop if Villain will call his whole stack with two overcards. One of us is missing something! I think it's you :-) Goldmund



[ QUOTE ]
I worked it out and believe now that pushing is better but if villian had around 800 chips then stop and go would be the best choice . .

If you push all in and he calls , you will be at best a coin flip . Lets say you have a 50 % chance of winning the flip .

Ev= 900*0.5-850*0.5= 25 . That is , you win half of your bb back .

Now if you use the stop and go play watch what happens to your Ev .

You call an additional 130 which means there is 360 in the pot and villian has 720 chips remaining .

Ev(s and g | he folds ) = 360*(2/3)=240 Since if he doesn't hit and he has two overcards , he doesn't have the correct odds to continue .

Ev(s and g | he calls ) = 850*1/3 = 283.33 (283>240)

I've also simplified the problem because there will be times when you hit your set on the flop when villian calls , and there will be times when you suck out when you have the worst of it .

My intuition was slightly off but the decision is still a close one .

[/ QUOTE ]

[jay_shark]

Actually we shouldn't be disregarding the times when you suck out . It will affect out decisions since this may occur if you decide to push all in pre-flop .

Also you will lose 17 BB's because the BB(50) is not yours .

You will lose 17 *1/3 = 5.6 BB's
You will win 3.6+1 =4.6*2/3 = 3.06

Also , about 12 % of the time you hit a set and 8 % of the time , you will hit by the turn and river . This means 20 % of the time you will win 18(1/3)=6 bb's

6*0.2 = 1.2

Now as you can see , the decision is only off by about 1 BB .

[Goldmund]

Jay, the calculation is still negative for the stop-and-go
Plus we're operating with the assumption that Villain only has overcards. When he has an overpair, the whole idea that he will fold 2/3 of the time goes overboard. To summarize: the stop-and-go is really a lot more effective if you don't have to overbet the pot by a lot on the flop. Goldmund

[jay_shark]

I agree it's negative but not as much as you thought it was . You included heros BB as a loss which could affect the decision making . My intuition was off but my calculations were right on :P

[Goldmund]

Hehe...well we can call it a draw then and both retire from the battlefield without loss of face. I think the stop-and-go works best when you get to bet about 1/4 to 1/3 of your chips preflop. The all-in on the flop will then give your opponent 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1 on a call. Stacks in given example, as you said, are just a tad too big. And technically we're not even talking about a stop-and-go in the OP's example since hero is calling preflop. Goldmund

[jay_shark]

I concur :P

[dboy23]

wow, I think I must be missing ev because I've never really done a stop'n'go play like this.