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#10
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You are facing AA, QQ, or AQ here, or maybe the longshot remaining KK. With the cards on the board there are 6 ways to have AA, one way to have KK, 4 ways to have QQ and 12 ways to have AQ. Having 22 or 44 is too reckless to call re-raise PF. so eliminating any hand but the 4 from possibilities there are 23 possible hands:
AA 6/23 KK 1/23 QQ 4/23 AQ 12/23 So statistically there is over a 50% chance that you are ahead or tied if these are the hands in question. There is a 43% that you are behind. Of the 43% you are behind you have 2 outs to make you 8% to turn or river a 3rd K. If they have AQ, they have 5 outs or 20% to turn or river an A or Q. All in all statistically this does look pretty even for you. However, would this person call a re-raise PF with AQ, if the answer is no, then you are probably down to 8% to win. So as always it is read specific. If he will call with AQ, this is a call. I would slow down here and not try to build a huge pot, because you do only have one pair. Small hand = small pot. There is no reason to get stacked here. If your read on the player has them folding AQ PF, then fold. Oh yeah, there is the 10% that they are on a total bluff hoping you missed the flop and just made a c-bet. |
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