KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

This hand is a full ring hand against a (winning) 28/8/2 regular. I was planning to check flops like this but since it went three handed to the flop, I figured I mighth as well value bet.

What hands are raising this flop that I beat, and what is my line ... basically fold or shove?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $64.20
UTG+1: $24
MP1: $153.60
MP2: $154.40
MP3: $99
CO: $55
Button: $97
Hero: $150.40
BB: $81

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $4</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $18</font>, 2 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($56, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $38</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $80</font>, CO folds, Hero ...

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

I shove, but then again I like to stack off [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

WA/WB. Reads on what he does with AA-QQ preflop would help. Will he always 4-bet AA? Will he call a 3-bet w/AQ? Have you been 3-betting a lot or been caught 3-betting light?

You're looking at AA, QQ, or AQ. I probably shove and stack off on this one too. Might be why KK is such an unprofitable hand for me.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Stack off and lose to QQ imo.

That's what I'd do anyway.


EDIT: Just checked stack sizes...sigh at being deep. But I HATE FOLDING TO MIN-RAISES. It's a typed in bet so that maybe suggests he thought about it and didn't want you out of the hand.

WTF though, helps to know what he essentially min-raises on flop.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

I dunno how FR plays, but im stacking off here in 6max

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Definitely shoving.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Your 150bb's deep, this isn't a good spot to stack off here. Unless this guy is a complete donk, your beaten here a lot and the only hand that plays like this is AQ. The MP+2's raise looks real strong with the CO to act behind him and the board is very dry. Fold and move on~

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Fold, though its a little strange for him to raise that flop with a set with co behind him.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

I see aces played with MP+2's line more and more these days at this level.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

You are facing AA, QQ, or AQ here, or maybe the longshot remaining KK. With the cards on the board there are 6 ways to have AA, one way to have KK, 4 ways to have QQ and 12 ways to have AQ. Having 22 or 44 is too reckless to call re-raise PF. so eliminating any hand but the 4 from possibilities there are 23 possible hands:

AA 6/23
KK 1/23
QQ 4/23
AQ 12/23

So statistically there is over a 50% chance that you are ahead or tied if these are the hands in question. There is a 43% that you are behind. Of the 43% you are behind you have 2 outs to make you 8% to turn or river a 3rd K. If they have AQ, they have 5 outs or 20% to turn or river an A or Q. All in all statistically this does look pretty even for you. However, would this person call a re-raise PF with AQ, if the answer is no, then you are probably down to 8% to win. So as always it is read specific. If he will call with AQ, this is a call. I would slow down here and not try to build a huge pot, because you do only have one pair. Small hand = small pot. There is no reason to get stacked here. If your read on the player has them folding AQ PF, then fold.

Oh yeah, there is the 10% that they are on a total bluff hoping you missed the flop and just made a c-bet.