Pumping Non Nut Flush draws - Out of Postion

[22pajo]

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honestly the flop c/r is probably a 0.1BB mistake, i would estimate the river fold at being close to a 2.5BB mistake....

thats like 25 times using the numbers i just made up out of my head

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Can you explain the workings behind those numbers please?

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

um... i just made them up....

i consider the flop c/r a very small mistake for many reasons, mainly because on the facts of it you have a draw close to the nuts and probably have at least ~36% equity 3way so putting more bets in can not hurt. it also could possibly add deception and can get more value on later streets if someone has a lower flush and you both hit. basically its not how i play it, i c/c c/c but playing it like this is only a very very small mistake.

on the river your ahead of any busted flush/straight draw (i know the straight is highly unlikely), any PP JJ or below (at least 10% of his range), any 6x, any 2x or even randomness that happens at these levels. I would say you are good roughly 25% of the time here. you fold getting 8:1, so yeah thats like a 2BB mistake imo.

[22pajo]

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I would say you are good roughly 25% of the time here. you fold getting 8:1, so yeah thats like a 2BB mistake imo.

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So let me see if i get this.
Assuming i'm good 25% of the time, for every 4 times i make this bet i'll only win 1 time but as i'm going to win an 8 BB pot i'll earn 8 BB but lose 3 BB for an over all profit of 5BB?

Have i got the profit calculation right?

[halpgr]

Which flop line is better than check raise? I prefer to just lead out on this flop. I think it helps keep everyone else in to bloat the pot.

Spending 1SB on the flop will help get the pot big enough to give you pot odds to correctly check/call the turn if you miss. That seems better than check/call, which also costs you 1SB, but would leave you having to fold the turn without pot odds to continue.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

lolo i dont know man i made the numbers up... but its a much bigger mistake than the flop c/r imo

[Absolution]

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its close, i would go for it if button called the flop. aussie, i wouldnt worry too much about bb 3-betting and cutting out the field.

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maybe so but by the time its back our our hero on the flop it is now 3 way so as we all know, its not really for value

also since we have relative position on BB we will be in a much better postion to CR the turn/river if/when we spike the flush

meh, you already agreed the CR aint so flash so ill stop typing...

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I wouldn't go for a check raise in that spot.

halpgr: We would have the odds to go for the flush on the turn even if we didn't raise. I'm not sure about your logic either. I wouldn't raise one street without equity just to give me odds on a following street. My raise would either have to be for equity or increase my equity enough by folding others to make it worth it.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S: I agree with your analysis, but if we assume our Q will be good 25% of the time when we hit, then raising the flop probably isn't -EV.

[Smurph64]

A bet is good out of position with 3 potential callers but not a c/r with less having to call two bets.

The check/raise is for a free card but you have to continue more often than not out of position anyways to shut down the flop raiser.

I only do it if I think this guy is a loon and I can check/raise him again on the turn and get him to fold.

I mean it's spew but if you want to go for it go for it.

PS. It works but don't try it against Str8fish unless you are clarvoyent and know your draw is going to hit on the river.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

absolution: whether a decision is + or - ev is not the same as whether it maximises our ev in the hand

[MrWookie]

Bet > c/r here.

[22pajo]

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Bet > c/r here.

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Why?