SD -5 @ KC?? Thoughts please

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
absent a gun-holding scenario I stay far away from this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the smart thing to do. Fact is, it would be no great surprise if the Chargers struggle at least somewhat from this point, given Charger's and Marty's history, first year starter at QB, weak schedule so far. On the other hand, given their talent (QB, RB, FB, TE, Front 7...) and dominance up to this point, it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see them continue to kick ass. I've seen almost every game for last 12 years, I think they are for real, but my objectivity is in question.

[silentbob]

If I'm betting anything, it's SD over 22.5 or total over 41.

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
Last year, "Road favorites finished an incredible 48-29-4 (62.3 percent), burying long-time 'home dog' bettors on the year."

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I know, last year was weird, and theories abound as to the reasons behind that phenomenon (I have my own extensive one) but it doesn't negate previous decades worth of results.

[ QUOTE ]
I used to believe that you can't bet road fav vs. division opponent. I don't think these axioms hold water anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe you should *never* back them. In fact, my biggest play of the year last season was a divisional road fave (CIN @ BAL). But based on the OP's post, it sounds like he's fairly new. I was just saying I remember as a novice handicapper, consistently having road favorites jump out at me. Eventually, you learn your lesson. Though it is possible to go to far, and be blinded to the value of some road favorites. I don't think this game is one of those cases.

[ QUOTE ]
Charger blew out OAK (#1 rival and division foe - and not HOUSTON as some have stated in this thread) and SF as road favs and easily covered.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are some great teams that the line is never able to catch up with. But those teams are rare. I don't think SD is one of them.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm betting anything, it's SD over 22.5 or total over 41.

[/ QUOTE ]
Upon further reflection, I'm definitely taking one of these, but can't decide which. For those of us who are still relative noobs, in what situations are you better off betting one team's total as opposed to the game total?

Right now, I'm leaning towards betting SD because only the Ravens have kept them under 23 so far.

[Performify]

I'd only bet the over 41 if you're confident that San Diego is scoring over that themselves. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Fat Earl]

thank you for all who saved me some money on this game

[silentbob]

Seven road favorites this week, two covered (NE, DEN) and the other five (PHI, SD, JAX, PIT, ARI) lost outright.

Last year was clearly a fluke.