Math question: folding an underfull

[Shaun]

I appreciate the last few posts. I will try and answer questions.

Bugman you mentioned 22- the way this guy was playing, I didn't see him coming in for a raise with 22 position or not, because I'd seen him limp quite a few hands, pocket pair that turned into a set included. 22 is definitely a possibility for a lot of players in this spot and may have been for him too, but I'm pretty sure it was out of his range. This guy was playing in a way that I thought his range could include KQ here, but not 22.

As for the turn and why I played it the way I did, I really didn't like this guy's flop check because the way he was playing it seemed unneccessary- like he was trying to let us catch up. There was another guy in the pot too who was not nearly as tight and it's the kind of situation where I thought a check from the PF raiser was asking for trouble, and that made me think maybe he wants trouble?

If I checkraise the turn it's going to be big enough to where I am committed to the pot. Of course if I lead the turn he is going to likely fold all pocket pairs because he's tight and knows I am too.

So it's a case of hoping for a bet from him when he is either way behind, has a lock, or has a few outs to beat me that I can see (A, 2, K, maybe Q). Not raising the turn is bad in the last scenario and that scenario is most likely so again, I'm not happy with how I played the turn. Then again, not raising the turn is fine when he holds something like JJ IMO.

If the river was not an Ace, I would have lead out small enough that I could call a raise and small enough that he would pay off with the hands I beat.

I guess another factor is that I basically ran bad for a month where being in spots like this and ending up with the losing hand became fairly common. A lot of those times I felt like I was probably beat but still put in money only to find out, yeah, I was beat.

That isn't logical but you get conditioned to expect it after seeing it for a while right or wrong. I still think I was beat on the river and I can't explain why. That's why I was looking for some sort of math that would give me a better idea of how to handle the river in future situations.