1/2 NL Middle set vs. 2p2er. DEEEP

[aejones]

Alright here we go.

I explained preflop already. I held small suited connectors, diamonds, and I made a turn flush. Here's what I was thinking:

Preflop, I call with any two, if the reraise is larger, I don't like it. The reason I don't like it is simple: I feel like it gives me too much information on the hand, and allows me to play perfectly if I have aces or kings. Now, if you're advocating raising to like 30 instead of 25, that's fine. But to 40+? Seems ridiculous. Betting 40 to win 7? I don't like it, but maybe that play is just preference.

So now on to the flop. I flopped a flush draw. He bet 41 dollars into like 54 dollar pot. With the texture of this flop, A J 8, there are obviously many hands he can have (I'm just differentiating this flop from 8 4 3) that I should be able to put him on based on postflop action. When he leads for the size of the pot, I basically tell myself this: He can have a set here, he can have top two here, he can have AK here, or he can have kings or queens, I think his c-bet is too standard to rule out kings or queens. Therefore, a flop flat call is my best choice here. That way, I can see it for relatively cheap (41 dollars with 350+ behind). I don't ever raise the flop to get out KK and QQ here because he will tell me if he has that on the turn (seems like suicide to fire KK or QQ here on the turn this deep with an ace out here) and because I don't think he's ever folding AK, AAA, JJJ, 888 or AJ on this flop. That's why I called the flop.

I make a flush on the turn, I basically rule him out of having a flush here since the A of diamonds is out there. Does he ever have KQd here? Less than 2% in my hand range analysis. Now when he checks to me on the turn, I had two choices. If I bet, I feel like I put a set or two pair to a nearly impossible decision, and given my image, he's probably shoving with them (or calling- I guess).

The situation you were in (and the decisions you were faced with, not made) sucks. If you c/r the turn, I play perfectly. I call with a straight (QT) and a flush. I fold with a smaller set (always) and two pair (always). So you are basically putting 200+ in the pot as a semi-bluff. If you c/c the turn, that sucks too. If you c/c and the board pairs, I would fold to your open push (which would be pot sized). If you check the river after pairing, I MIGHT bet to get value from AK, but checking the river after pairing would require a sick read and lose some value vs most players. That is why both your turn and river situations are nasty.

I have given this hand a decent amount of thought, and I really don't think it to be that interesting. It had some questionable points, but it really just feels to me like you got stuck with a monster second best hand in a big pot vs a LAG (thanks to everyone with the compliments). Bummer man, I hope this analysis was good, it is exactly what I was thinking at the point of the hand.

[BDaws]

aejones,
Do you push if he bets the turn for 100-130?

[aejones]

Yes, obv.

[cero_z]

Hi PB,

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I thought that he was calling PF there with pretty much any 2 that he raised with, mostly because he's on the button. Now, should i be raising more PF to combat that?

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You could write a whole book on how to play JJ in this type of spot, but here are some quick thoughts:

You don't need to reraise more, though I usually do. But, I'm guessing my reraising range is wider than yours (since my stats look more like aejones's). If your range is now narrowed down to a pretty good hand (rarely/never air), then I think 25-30 is good.

What you should be doing with JJ here, generally, is reraising to try to hit a set and stack him in a huge pot, or calling and trying to win a medium-sized pot with a little early deception. Reraising and then trying to play as though you were the guy who opened with AQ and hit a Q is a bad plan--does that analogy make sense? He's in position, the pot's getting bloated, you have a vulnerable one pair, and your hand is a lot more defined than his--not conducive to you liking the outcome. So, if your plan was to set and possibly win a huge one, kudos. If you were taking that in-between path I outlined above, then I don't like it.

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From your post, i gather that my turn check isnt just bad, but awful because it puts me in an awkward spot for the rest of the hand.

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Not necessarily. It's the board texture more than the difference in information that makes me think you should bet. I think with the 3rd heart out there, you need to keep him from being able to check behind and kill your chances of winning a big pot while simultaneously giving him a free card. If you bet into a LAG on a card that is obviously scary to you, he will often try to take advantage of that with a huge semi-bluff raise. If this is the kind of guy to make this move, then you want to encourage it, especially since you're probably going to have to get all your chips in the middle eventually if another heart doesn't fall. Inducing a big bluff will put some good results in the field of possible ones where a big pot is played. Against an unpredictable opponent, that's about the best you can do with a hand this big, IMO, which is why I love that style.

I would've definitely lost all my chips on the turn here, given the info provided. I would've bet 100 and called everything back. Worst-case scenario (discounting AA) is I have 10 outs. More common scenario is he has 7 or less (he says he would always fold a smaller set, here, but most players can't).

Lastly, I think aejones's point about not trying to force out KK/QQ on the flop, because that opportunity will still be there on the turn, is EXCELLENT. That's showing some nerve and some brains. Note that many LAGs are not disciplined enough to keep from pushing over a pot-bet on the flop with a flush draw, especially if there's some indication you may be picking on them. Hence, my recommendation to bet full-pot on the flop.

[aejones]

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Note that many LAGs are not disciplined enough to keep from pushing over a pot-bet on the flop with a flush draw, especially if there's some indication you may be picking on them. Hence, my recommendation to bet full-pot on the flop.

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My thoughts exactly. At first, I struggled with the idea of not raising the flop. But upon further review, I noted that I don't have any FE vs made hands (except maybe AK, but probably not with my image) and any hand I do have FE vs on the flop I can easily take him off of on the turn, thereby getting myself a chance to see the flush for "cheap." That said, I think the point of a full pot sized bet is a valiant one.

Please note that this post doesn't further analysis much, I'm just repeating what cero z and I have been saying in a more simple way.

Also, thanks for the compliments.

[jjigglers]

How do you guys all know each others party SNs? I mean, I can guess that AEJones has a 9 letter all undercase name by his stats (I only have one good 30/18ish in my database), but how do you know everyone else beforehand?

I apologize if I'm out of line, I just started 6max (full ring convert).

[aislephive]

I've played with Aejones a fair bit, and he is definitely a good LAG. One of the better 200nl regulars for sure (I'm NineHighFTW on PP fyi). I disagree with those who say that calling this three bet with any two is +EV. Against somebody who is reraising fairly light, you don't have a lot of implied odds at all. I would call with a wide range such as suited connectors and PP's, but I think any two such as a J9o should be instamucked.

The turn play really decides the hand. A turn c/r AI is terrible, because you only get called by flushes/straights. Betting is good, 2/3 pot and fold to a raise. Another option is c/c turn and reevaluate the river. If the board pairs I would go for the c/r all in. An open push looks like an obvious boat and all made flushes and straights should fold. If the river was a blank then I'd probably c/f, but it's very read dependant.

How exactly did the hand go down on the turn? OP check-raised all in? What happened?

[aislephive]

Oh and two more things.

AE - are you betting a blank turn if he checks or taking the free card?

Secondly, I would check the turn (diamond or non D alike) with AA/JJ sometimes as well, probably 25% or so. So I wouldn't nessicarilly assume Hero has KK/QQ because they checked the turn. Sometimes I get too tricky, but that's beside the point. If somebody is so predictable that they would never check a set on the turn there then I think betting any blank turn if it's checked to you is very very +EV. Against me though, you often would get c/r ai, as well as against most players with any trickery.

[Pasterbator]

On the turn, i did check/push which i am convinced is bad. I considered the possiblilty of him having AxKd or something similar and figured i might be able to take the pot down here...maybe he'll make a big mistake by calling, but i see that i didnt think that one thru too well.


ae - thanks for the thoughts. Honestly, my thoughts were very similar to yours during the hand. I was pretty sure that if the board paired, you would be able to get away from a flush, so i really wasnt getting any implied odds on the turn, which sucks.

Maybe the hand wasnt all that interesting, but it was the most amount of time ive ever thought about a hand. Not because i lost (im not results oriented) but because it DID have many points that i had to consider thruought the hand. Points that i will never have to look at with most 200NL players.


cero - Thanks for the analysis. When i reraised PF with JJ, while my idea wasnt exactly as you stated, that is how i usually play the hand. I wasnt planning on going to the felt with JJ unimproved, but if i hit a set i planned on stacking him. I like what you said about sometimes calling PF, but my problem here is that his hand range is soooo wide in a 4 handed game on the button, i will have trouble putting him on a range thruought the hand.


Thanks guys. I feel this hand really helped my game.

[Nielsio]

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On the turn, i did check/push which i am convinced is bad. I considered the possiblilty of him having AxKd or something similar and figured i might be able to take the pot down here...maybe he'll make a big mistake by calling, but i see that i didnt think that one thru too well.


ae - thanks for the thoughts. Honestly, my thoughts were very similar to yours during the hand. I was pretty sure that if the board paired, you would be able to get away from a flush, so i really wasnt getting any implied odds on the turn, which sucks.

Maybe the hand wasnt all that interesting, but it was the most amount of time ive ever thought about a hand. Not because i lost (im not results oriented) but because it DID have many points that i had to consider thruought the hand. Points that i will never have to look at with most 200NL players.


cero - Thanks for the analysis. When i reraised PF with JJ, while my idea wasnt exactly as you stated, that is how i usually play the hand. I wasnt planning on going to the felt with JJ unimproved, but if i hit a set i planned on stacking him. I like what you said about sometimes calling PF, but my problem here is that his hand range is soooo wide in a 4 handed game on the button, i will have trouble putting him on a range thruought the hand.


Thanks guys. I feel this hand really helped my game.

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So next time you're bet-folding the turn? Your hand is very well defined as not being a straight or flush, so ae could take it away from you regardless of his holding (potentially with AxKd)?