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#31
06-19-2006, 11:42 PM
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Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
Whoa time out everyone. Do we realize that if we do NOTHING, we are essentially guarnteed money, which means that risking our stack (i.e. pushing), even when a 70% favorite is really REALLY bad. Note this line from the OP:
[ QUOTE ] he doesn't seem afraid to gamble with a micro stack about to post. [/ QUOTE ] Call. See turn. If benign, push. Risking a 30% chance of $EV=0 is quite bad when the chance of AT LEAST 3rd place finish is almost assured. 
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#32
06-19-2006, 11:59 PM
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Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
[ QUOTE ]
There's a small chance he's trapping. He could have been distracted, he could have wanted you to think he has a hand so you don't push him off... he could just be a major donk. Who knows? Either way, I'm never folding here and I'm always pushing. If he has an overpair, we're still a 70/30 favorite. [/ QUOTE ] You're missing the point. At this stage of the tournament chip values and real money values are dramatically different. Your equity if you fold might be 30%. If you win your equity might go up to 40% (this may be high since most of the time you win your opponent will fold). If you lose your equity is 0. (I am just throwing out these numbers, they are probably off a little but they serve to make a point) With these numbers you would need to win the hand over 75% of the time just to break even. Your 70/30 edge is costing you money. Another point. The best result of this hand is that you call the flop bet, and the opponent checks it down. You are the big blind in an unraised pot. You have position. Your opponent has no idea what you have. To think that he is just going to keep firing chips at the pot if you call is mistaken. He might, but I think there is a good chance he'll check it down which is exactly what you want. Paul
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#33
06-20-2006, 08:54 AM
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Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
Guys, he limped in. He then led. We're in great shape even if he has a hand(although I agree not enough), but have you not considered how much FE there is? He limped & led. He has complete air very often.
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#34
06-20-2006, 11:16 AM
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Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
[ QUOTE ]
Why are you playing if you are really afraid of any overcard/pair or flush draw here calling? [/ QUOTE ] Uh...I'm not afraid. I'm trying to win more chips since we're ahead nearly always.
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#36
06-20-2006, 12:31 PM
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Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
[ QUOTE ]
For thoses saying just call... Turn (2800) J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villain bets 1800. Hero? [/ QUOTE ] ..is glad he didn't push preflop.
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#37
06-20-2006, 03:41 PM
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Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
[ QUOTE ]
For thoses saying just call... Turn (2800) J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villain bets 1800. Hero? [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly why I shove the flop. EDIT: I understand getting called on the flop is really not good, but I don't think we get called that much. I'm fine with calling on the flop because I get why people want to do it, but it makes the turn a bitch and a half. Are you guys who said call the flop now folding this turn? This is where I think the problem with the call line occurs.
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#38
06-20-2006, 03:43 PM
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Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
Yeah, obviously I meant "flop" and not "preflop"
Villain has the stack for calling with the Ax of diamonds, in my opinion. Heck, he might even call with a lesser flush draw.
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#39
06-20-2006, 04:36 PM
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Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
My read on villain is that he wants your stack. If he'd just wanted the blinds he'd have raised or pushed and unless you have aces you really can't call.
His limp to me implies he has a hand, either a pair of some sort or a big ace. From your read it appears villain isn't folding to a push either. I imagine this is perhaps a time when super weak is the best play. Call and see the turn, then unless you improve try and get to the river as cheaply as possible, else just fold your way into the money. Villain could just as easily have a set here as he could have a big ace FD or trash. And the cost of finding out if you're behind is probably too high. In the heat of the battle I'd probably just push. But this seems to make the most sense. You're guaranteed to money why risk anything just now. Thoughts anyone ?
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