Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.

[Sh@i'tan]

Actually after a discussion with someone, being a huge chip leader would allow me to move up in FT money making the play +$EV along with +cEV. But i hate risking my tourney life late on a flip when it can be avoided unless i'm in need of chips.(possible leak??)

[Karakaz]

Yes, you brought it onto yourself. Push 100% against God Himself.

[schwah]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats great 11 people left i'm 2nd in chips. Chip leader is at my table i have QQ he has AKs. I can see his cards i'll OF all day knowing he will call my all in. I may be wrong thinking like this, but its a -$EV play and i know i will be able to find better spots. If i'm clearly outmatched by everyone left in the tourney then i might take the flip.

[/ QUOTE ]

passing up cEV is routine

passing up $EV is almost never correct*

i don't see what your point is.


*the one spot where i will knowingly pass up +$EV is in a freezeout situation where i feel that the other player(s) is/are very exploitable and stacks are relatively deep so that i will be able to capitalize on this. an extreme example would be a heads up freezeout on pokerstars where the other player is open pushing any 2 on the first level, and i do NOT have the opportunity to play this player again when the match is over. i would fold something like QTo here, even though it is +$ev, because calling here would prevent me from taking a much larger +$ev edge later on. however stacks are generally not deep enough late in a MTT or SNG that passing up ANY edge is correct.

[SEABEAST]

It's not close dude. Maybe if you had J7o you could wonder.

[SEABEAST]

And what exactly do you mean by 'fear of variance' in this situation? That if you actually see a showdown in poker sometimes you lose? Do you expect to go through your whole life folding/making other people fold?