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#1
04-05-2006, 04:01 PM
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Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
recently I was at the final table of a live tournament. There are 3 of us left and I am the small blind, the big blind and I have the same amount of chips (30k) SB=4k BB=8k.
The BB is a thinking tight aggressive type that knows my game well and understands the range of hand that I might raise or push with late in a tourney against a random hand. I look down and I see A-7 off, and being in the small blind and having only 4 BB left, I am inclined to push, but I know that this player understands the situation and knows that I would make this move and is likely to call with just about anything. This makes me only a slight favorite over most hands that this player holds. I hate getting my money in as a slight favorite (is this wrong). So I called the BB, and the flop comes with an A, perfect, just what I wanted, now I can get my money in cause I am surely a bigger favorite now. So I push. I am called the player had K-4 of clubs. Incidentally the flop hit with 2 clubs, the river falls a club and I am left with T500, eliminated 2 hands later. I feel like the variance of this game has me tied up in knots I don't bet because I have been screwed by it, and then my fear manifested on the river. Did I bring this on myself? Did I play too cautiously? 
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#2
04-05-2006, 04:07 PM
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Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
[ QUOTE ]
recently I was at the final table of a live tournament. There are 3 of us left and I am the small blind, the big blind and I have the same amount of chips (30k) SB=4k BB=8k. The BB is a thinking tight aggressive type that knows my game well and understands the range of hand that I might raise or push with late in a tourney against a random hand. I look down and I see A-7 off, and being in the small blind and having only 4 BB left, I am inclined to push, but I know that this player understands the situation and knows that I would make this move and is likely to call with just about anything. This makes me only a slight favorite over most hands that this player holds. I hate getting my money in as a slight favorite (is this wrong). [/ QUOTE ] Very, very wrong. If you push here, no matter how well your opponent knows that you have a wide range, he has no recourse to stop you from making a +EV push especially with the strong hand that you have. His calling range here is irrelevant. This is a huge push and not even close. You could turn your cards faceup on the table and he couldn't stop you from making a +EV push. But i'm not sure what any of this has to do with variance.
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#4
04-05-2006, 04:07 PM
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Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
[ QUOTE ]
Did I play too cautiously? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, and you overthought the situation quite a bit too. You had it exactly right when you knew you should push preflop. When you are on a small stack, you can't afford to wait for large edges. I'm pretty sure this is an unexploitable +EV push or close to it (meaning there's no range he can call with that will make this -EV). I don't know what it has to with variance. Whether or not you like getting all in as a slight favorite is totally irrelevant when you have 4BB's left in your stack. You take what you can get.
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#8
04-05-2006, 05:23 PM
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Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
[ QUOTE ]
I feel like the variance of this game has me tied up in knots I don't bet because I have been screwed by it, and then my fear manifested on the river. Did I bring this on myself? Did I play too cautiously? [/ QUOTE ] If this is how you feel, maybe you should take a break from MTTs for a little while. Play some STTs, some NL ring, PL Omaha, something. Or, just train yourself to not think like this (easier said than done). You might be amazed at what a little variety can do for your mindset and your game.
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#9
04-05-2006, 05:42 PM
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Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
your fear of variance has caused you to make a -EV play.
the way to overcome variance is to make +EV plays. variance will still be a bitch but you are more likely to come out on the positive side.
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#10
04-05-2006, 05:55 PM
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Re: Variance, fear of it, and dealing with it.
[ QUOTE ]
your fear of variance has caused you to make a -EV play. the way to overcome variance is to make +EV plays. variance will still be a bitch but you are more likely to come out on the positive side. [/ QUOTE ] Well stated... -Blazman
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