Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh that is top 35%. Not exactly that wide. A case could be made to push more like top 65-70%. 35% seems very reasonable to me. If you want, change it to

33+,ATo+,A2s+,KTo+,K9s+,QJo,Q9s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s (top 20%)

And we are 42.5% to win. Still a super easy call. You can't argue for a fold if you are trying to win $$$ at these. Might as well go play craps for a living if you throw this hand away.

[/ QUOTE ]

um...

i'm trying to digest your thoughts slowly for myself here, perhaps i'll go backwards or something.

1) extending from my tiny sample size, having won money playing craps in my life, i could clearly play for a living.

2) i want to win money at these, and do.

3) i can argue anything i want, any time i want.

4) in particular, i can argue for a fold if i wanted to.

5) what are you, high? let's put EVERYONE at the table on a pretty ridiculously tight range, that being TT+, ATs+, AJo+. you know what sngpt says to push utg here then? top 20%. several other ranges for calling standards put the pushing range utg at much closer to 5%, including the built in average and loose settings.

6) others are doing more empirical work on what one should or shouldn't be calling with, in the manner you did your original work earlier in this thread, but using more realistic pushing standards for the utg raiser in particular, and likely for hte sb as well, though i can't remember right now what you had his range on.

7) you've got almost exactly 10 full bets here and you're first to act 4 handed. you're not on the button, you don't have 5 bets, etc.

c

Nevermind...

[ryanghall]

I'm calling this.

The chances of you losing to both players is quite low and that's the only real disaster scenario. That's something I'm just not going to worry about in this particular situation. The blinds are pretty high.

There's quite a reasonable chance one of them has a lower pair and one of them has an Ace (or something like that). You have a very good chance of having the best hand. JJ is big. Call.

Ryan

[citanul]

btw
something really [censored] up is going on with my sngpt.

c

[citanul]

something is really, really [censored] up with my sngpt.

vinyard can post about it if he wants.

[Shillx]

LMAO if you put them on any of the preset ranges. How about putting them on optimal ranges, not bogus ranges that can justify your position. Hell I can make up BS ranges too but I don't because it doesn't help the forum in any way.

Fact of the matter is that UTG+1 is never calling (top 2% or so). Likewise for the BB (maybe 3%). The SB is calling say 8-10% of the time. That is roughly what you should be going off of. Who knows what they will call with in reality. You aren't a mind reader and neither am I. Trying to guess is a waste of time and it leads to bias. You could say that they are calling top 50% and claim that UTG should basically never push. Can anyone prove you wrong??? No it is your opinion and while it isn't close to optimal, it certainly isn't incorrect.

If you think he is on the top 8%, that is fine. I have been in this situation many times and UTG has pushed far more often then that. Who knows, maybe they were just lucky mofos and found AA and KK way more then thier fair share.

Anyway I love how the forum attacks the guy who takes the time to do the ICM while it praises people who say stuff like, "play for 1st." or "fold and just make the money." It really speaks volumes.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to call this. Your hand is just too good. The following ranges seem pretty reasonable to me.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.3141 % 20.69% 00.63% { 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 33.3188 % 32.47% 00.85% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 3: 45.3670 % 44.79% 00.58% { JJ }

You have more then enough hand to play this pot and remember that you have to come in last to not make the money. I'll do an ICM, but calling is probably + 2.0% or more.

Fold - .2998 and .2573
Call - .4396 (win) and .2535 (2nd)

So if it is 63/37 in favor of the short stack if you fold, your fold equity is 27.3%

If you call and are 69/31 favorite over the big stack, your equity is

Win (45.4%)
2nd (23.0%)
3rd (21.3%)
OOTM (10.3%)

Total = 30.0% equity if you call

EV calling = + 2.7%

I'm going to stab myself the next time I see, "play for 3rd" or "play for 1st". That is all nonsense. You make the play with the highest expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]

My blood sugar is low or something, so I'm not sure what's going on in this thread. A call looks reasonable, but I think there's room for a read here. In general, I think your range for UTG is too wide by a fair amount and the range for SB is a little too wide. If SB is a pansy, it could be worse.

I'll look at the numbers after dinner.

[11t]

I'd call, SB has to beat you both

If it was HU it would be an easier fold

If there guy who folded was super short I'd play for 2nd and muck

A read here would be nice, as in what their ranges are

[citanul]

i am neither attacking you nor did i praise anyone for any stupid posts.

however, saying that i am using my ranges totally arbitrarilly is silly.

unless you put them on truly stupidly tight ranges, it cannot be correct to push a huge range. not thinking that a random opponent will call with say, TT, from any position, against any push, in this spot, is dumb.

c

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to stab myself the next time I see, "play for 3rd" or "play for 1st". That is all nonsense. You make the play with the highest expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]

spoken like a true 2p2er