Should I fold JJ on the bubble here?

[wpr101]

First player in was a two plus two guy.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t3705)
Button (t3800)
SB (t2495)
Hero (t3500)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t3680</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t2270 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t6025) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t6025) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t6025) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t6025

[wpr101]

$55 turbo by the way.

[nuggetz87]

Standard I think...

[Kerth]

I wouldn't overcall all-in with JJ on the bubble.

[DevinLake]

I fold. JJ isn't going to play that well against two all ins. You could be up against as many as three overs. Let them battle it out. The bubble might burst here, if not there will be a crippled stack.

[FoldYourLife]

I just noticed that SB called. I think it's a fairly easy fold now.

[Roland32]

Screw that call. Play for money not, not taking 4th. If you win your golden for 1st.

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
Screw that call. Play for money not, not taking 4th. If you win your golden for 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain? How is calling here going to make you more money than folding?

If you win, you have a good CHANCE at 1st, if you lose to UTG you are out in fourth...if you lose to SB but beat UTG you have 5bbs.

If you fold, you have 8bbs and a decent chance at 1st.

[KingDan]

Easy call I think.

You need to lose to both UTG and SB to get 4th

[Shillx]

You have to call this. Your hand is just too good. The following ranges seem pretty reasonable to me.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.3141 % 20.69% 00.63% { 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 33.3188 % 32.47% 00.85% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 3: 45.3670 % 44.79% 00.58% { JJ }

You have more then enough hand to play this pot and remember that you have to come in last to not make the money. I'll do an ICM, but calling is probably + 2.0% or more.

Fold - .2998 and .2573
Call - .4396 (win) and .2535 (2nd)

So if it is 63/37 in favor of the short stack if you fold, your fold equity is 27.3%

If you call and are 69/31 favorite over the big stack, your equity is

Win (45.4%)
2nd (23.0%)
3rd (21.3%)
OOTM (10.3%)

Total = 30.0% equity if you call

EV calling = + 2.7%

I'm going to stab myself the next time I see, "play for 3rd" or "play for 1st". That is all nonsense. You make the play with the highest expectation.