Hand from Super Thursday; what hands do you put villain on here?

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Either top pair or straight draw. There's enough money in the middle that I am pushing this and hoping rizzle comes along.

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Hmmm... I'm pushing this and hoping rizzle folds, but that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ] Do you mean that, if the villian has AJ or T9, you would still prefer that he fold? Or do you mean that you are just hoping that your hand is good?

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Both, actually. But I was stressing the first point, really. I'd rather surrender some equity here for the sake of increasing my stack by about 50% without a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ] Oh man, are you going to force me to do the math? You have to know how wrong that is. Please just admit it, and don't make me break out the PokerStove.

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Early in a tournament, I would rather surrender some equity than put my tournament life on the line. What is there to admit? I already said it was surrendering equity, don't get your panties in a bunch.

Edit: I admit this may be incorrect "mathematically," but I am merely stating what I would prefer happen, counterintuitve or not.

[Fireball_AA]

Range : QJ,KJ,QJ, 22, 88, JJ. It can be 9T also.

Why do people say to push??? I mean there's 1020 on the flop + 650 bet = 1670 and you want to bet 4400???Isn't it a huge overbet? Personnaly I raise to 1650 to get it heads-up and I don't think he folds any J. Now on the turn, you still have position and can go all-in because the pot will be more than your stack. This is how you create a large pot.

By the way, Kramer, it is not only about losing equity. This is an awesome spot to almost double your stack. Play it fast, but not too fast.

[jcm4ccc]

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Either top pair or straight draw. There's enough money in the middle that I am pushing this and hoping rizzle comes along.

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Hmmm... I'm pushing this and hoping rizzle folds, but that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ] Do you mean that, if the villian has AJ or T9, you would still prefer that he fold? Or do you mean that you are just hoping that your hand is good?

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Both, actually. But I was stressing the first point, really. I'd rather surrender some equity here for the sake of increasing my stack by about 50% without a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ] Oh man, are you going to force me to do the math? You have to know how wrong that is. Please just admit it, and don't make me break out the PokerStove.

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Early in a tournament, I would rather surrender some equity than put my tournament life on the line. What is there to admit? I already said it was surrendering equity, don't get your panties in a bunch.

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[sigh]

Villian's range: AJo, AJs, 89o, 89s

If villian folds: You will have 6190 chips 100% of the time

If villian calls: You will have 9820 chips 78.5% of the time.
You will have 0 chips 21.5% of the time.
Average number of chips: 7708 chips.

[/sigh]

[flopking]

Jx, 88, 22

Probe bet huh?... tight player is either assessing if he is ahead or is building a pot.

I raise to 1.5K and await his push or fold...

edit... I think the miniraise suxs... 2K is better....

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Either top pair or straight draw. There's enough money in the middle that I am pushing this and hoping rizzle comes along.

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Hmmm... I'm pushing this and hoping rizzle folds, but that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ] Do you mean that, if the villian has AJ or T9, you would still prefer that he fold? Or do you mean that you are just hoping that your hand is good?

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Both, actually. But I was stressing the first point, really. I'd rather surrender some equity here for the sake of increasing my stack by about 50% without a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ] Oh man, are you going to force me to do the math? You have to know how wrong that is. Please just admit it, and don't make me break out the PokerStove.

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Early in a tournament, I would rather surrender some equity than put my tournament life on the line. What is there to admit? I already said it was surrendering equity, don't get your panties in a bunch.

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[sigh]

Villian's range: AJo, AJs, 89o, 89s

If villian folds: You will have 6190 chips 100% of the time

If villian calls: You will have 9820 chips 78.5% of the time.
You will have 0 chips 21.5% of the time.
Average number of chips: 7708 chips.

[/sigh]

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Like I said, I would surrender equity here in order to control variance. This is maybe a bad example, but my point still remains: having zero variance has some value. You obviously know this because if the difference was 1 chip, you would clearly choose the 0 variance route. Question is, where is the cutoff?

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Range : QJ,KJ,QJ, 22, 88, JJ. It can be 9T also.

Why do people say to push??? I mean there's 1020 on the flop + 650 bet = 1670 and you want to bet 4400???Isn't it a huge overbet? Personnaly I raise to 1650 to get it heads-up and I don't think he folds any J. Now on the turn, you still have position and can go all-in because the pot will be more than your stack. This is how you create a large pot.

By the way, Kramer, it is not only about losing equity. This is an awesome spot to almost double your stack. Play it fast, but not too fast.

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I really couldn't disagree more. I think pushing is the superior play because we stand to win more chips when he calls as opposed to giving him a second chance to get away from the hand. Also, sometimes overpushing like this can be read as "I'm on a draw" and Villain might be more inclined to call with a less than premium holding.

Lastly, after calling there is over 2K in the pot!! Raising any less than all-in is a small raise, IMO, asking for a call from a hand that has outs against you. Why give the straight draw the chance to hit and bust you cheaply?

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Personnaly I raise to 1650 to get it heads-up

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Oh, and way to pretty much give Villain correct odds to call with a straight draw.

[NinjaMan]

Why are we ignoring TT, 99, 77. They, conceivably (esp. 99 and TT) who could find a lead here with 3-4 checks in front.

I hate pushing. Hate it hate it hate it.

I raise to around 1600 or so. Crap, sometimes, I might call and hope he puts in another bet on the turn.

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I hate pushing. Hate it hate it hate it.

I raise to around 1600 or so. Crap, sometimes, I might call and hope he puts in another bet on the turn.

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Ugh. Again, I have to disagree vehemently with your line. I think calling is probably the worst play imagineable here, aside from outright folding.

[NinjaMan]

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I hate pushing. Hate it hate it hate it.

I raise to around 1600 or so. Crap, sometimes, I might call and hope he puts in another bet on the turn.

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Ugh. Again, I have to disagree vehemently with your line. I think calling is probably the worst play imagineable here, aside from outright folding.

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Eh, with so many people in the hand, calling is dangerous, I would probably raise him.

If it were just villian and myself, calling is +cEV against a good player AND a bad player.

Think about, the turn comes a rag, villian likes his TPTK more and more (or his set :-x) and leads again, THEN if we push, villian has put a tons of chips into the pot and he has to call with, more than likely, the worst hand. This extracts more value from our hand when we're ahead. When we're behind, it sucks, and I'm going broke with the overpair in this spot. Pushing the flop allows our opponent to play pretty straightforward poker. Let him put in more bets with the worst of it.

Now, THIS hand with such a large portion of the table seeing a flop, a raise is optimum, but a shove is not.

[jskinn04]

With your opponent being mega super tight, I'm thinking that his preflop requirements are (1)pairs, (2)big aces, (3) suited connectors, and (4) KQs and KJs.

In this hand, he's the third limper, which suggest to me that he doesn't have AA, KK, or QQ. Maybe he could have JJ or TT but I would expect him to raise with those hands. Maybe he raises half the time with them. After two other limpers I think it's reasonable to believe that he's limping with any pair, any suited connector down to 87s, KQs, KJs, AJs, AJo, and maybe AQo.

After he bets 1/2 pot on the flop, he could have AJs, AJo, KJs, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 22, JTs, and T9s. There are 12 ways to deal AJ with a J on the board, 2 ways to deal KJs, 3 ways to deal JJ (but I'd downgrade that to 1 b/c I think he raises JJ preflop most of the time), 6 ways for TT (downgrade to about 4 because he raises this preflop many times), 6 ways for 99, 3 ways for 88, 3 ways for 22 (downgrade to 2 because he folds this preflop sometimes), 3 ways for JTs, and 4 ways for T9s. Total is 37 hands. JJ, 88 and 22 appear 6 times. That means ~16% of the time you've got two outs and 8% chance to win (1.2% equity). 15 hands paired the jack and have five outs so .40*.80 = 32% equity. KJs, TT, and 99 (12 hands) are all drawing to two outs so .92*.32 = 29% equity. Finally, T9s gives you .68*.11 = 7.5%. Adding up the total equities... your equity is roughly 1.2% + 32% + 29% + %7.5 = 70%.

Given that you're a pretty strong favorite in this situation I definitely want to raise this bet. If you just call and he makes a large bet when a blank hits the turn are you really going to fold, thinking that he's holding a set? I think the best bet is to raise him such that he's getting the wrong price to call with a five out hand such as AJ. I don't think he's going to put any more money in with any hand that has only two outs against you (including KJs). The odds against five outs hitting on the turn is (40:5 == 8:1). 40 instead of 42 b/c I don't think he's coming along with any hand that includes a king so you can count out those two other kings in the calculation. Once you call his bet, the pot is 2500. A min raise would put the pot at about 3150 for 3150:650 == 4.8:1 odds. Those are a little too good if he has the straight draw, so I'd say go ahead and put in 1650, raising him 1000 and giving him 3.5:1 odds, which should make him fold the SD. You still have enough stack left (~2500) that you can push the turn (pot will have ~4500) and deny him the right odds for any hand that is still behind.

In sum, I vote for raising him to 1650 in an effort to cause him to err by calling.

-jskinn