Forum: Probability
05-01-2007, 02:29 PM
|
|
Replies: 1
Views: 136
|
|
Forum: Probability
04-25-2007, 05:10 PM
|
|
Replies: 1
Views: 136
five card poker with 6th common card
Suppose you deal out five card hands and then deal out a sixth common card. The best 5 card poker hand wins. What is the proability of a tie ?
Is there software out there to simulate this?
|
|
Forum: Probability
03-09-2007, 12:33 PM
|
|
Replies: 4
Views: 118
Re: EV and Variance
It would be surprising if the distribution for 10 hours is far form normal, but I am just not sure 10 hours suffices. I know that there have been studies about this on this site. I just remember...
|
|
Forum: Probability
03-08-2007, 08:40 PM
|
|
Replies: 4
Views: 118
Re: EV and Variance
I'm not so sure that you can invoke the Central Limit Theorem here. Short-term results can be much more extreme than predicted by the usual random walk model.
|
|
Forum: Poker Theory
03-08-2007, 08:21 PM
|
|
Replies: 3
Views: 117
Re: Sit and go and the Kelly criteria
But that 20-30 buy-in rule is based on the Kelly criterion.
Whether you like it or not, your choice of stakes is based on some estimate of your win rate or SD (unless you are overbankrolled or...
|
|
Forum: Poker Theory
03-07-2007, 10:43 AM
|
|
Replies: 4
Views: 99
Re: Security equivalent?
Its called Certainty Equivalent and it can be computed using your utility function often via quadratic approximation. Search
Kelly CE
Risk Adjustment for poker players
bjmath.com
|
|
Forum: Poker Theory
03-07-2007, 12:51 AM
|
|
Replies: 3
Views: 117
Re: Sit and go and the Kelly criteria
Figure your win rate r and variance v for large sample. Your bankroll should be v/r for full Kelly. So lets say you make 10$ per tourney with a standard deviation of 100$, your optimal bank will be...
|
|
Forum: Probability
12-04-2006, 03:02 PM
|
|
Replies: 10
Views: 1,001
|
|
Forum: Small Stakes
11-21-2006, 09:03 PM
|
|
Replies: 2
Views: 58
JJ on the button
1-2 NL, Hero (weak very tight) is on button with 180. UTG has about 300.
UTG calls, fold to cutoff who makes it 10.
Hero makes it 30.
UTG makes it 60.
All fold to button who calls.
Flop AQx rb...
|
|
Forum: Medium Stakes
11-08-2006, 12:07 PM
|
|
Replies: 1
Views: 66
2-5 Nit hand
2-5 full aggessive B&M game (100-300 buyin).
I'm in MP with about 500. I've been very nitty tight and starting to have the sense of being pushed around. I get ATo and bring it in making it 20 to...
|
|
Forum: Probability
10-19-2006, 03:22 AM
|
|
Replies: 10
Views: 1,001
|
|
Forum: Poker Theory
10-14-2006, 06:40 PM
|
|
Replies: 8
Views: 116
Re: Kelly Criterion / Bankroll Management
The c=6 is the "optimal f" suggested by R. Vince (amazon him and see our paper on bjmath.com).
As in poker, a lot of the time investors don't know their edge and variance with much accuracy, so...
|
|
Forum: Probability
10-13-2006, 04:16 PM
|
|
Replies: 14
Views: 4,585
Re: bankroll concepts - risk of ruin
If you are engaged in an activity that say gives you a certain win rate r and variance v per unit of time (or e.g. 100 hands), betting k times Kelly translates into having a bankroll of v/(kr). The...
|
|
Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
10-12-2006, 03:49 PM
|
|
Replies: 8
Views: 246
Re: Bankroll article
In our paper on bjmath.com, there is a formula for the expected exit times for fractional Kelly betting. It is the "obvious" function of the win rate r.
|
|
Forum: Probability
10-12-2006, 03:33 PM
|
|
Replies: 14
Views: 4,585
Re: bankroll concepts - risk of ruin
1. You must take into account future bankroll supplements when discussing risk of ruin. If you do not, any discussion seems absurd. If you have an alternate bankroll model you will just have to end...
|
|
Forum: Probability
10-11-2006, 03:32 PM
|
|
Replies: 14
Views: 4,585
Re: bankroll concepts - risk of ruin
I am making some assumptions to invoke Kelly of course. Some fool might want to bet his whole BR on a coin flip, but Kelly is optimal in well-known senses, which one can read about.
Bankrolls...
|
|
Forum: Probability
10-11-2006, 10:50 AM
|
|
Replies: 14
Views: 4,585
Re: bankroll concepts - risk of ruin
Your risk of ruin is approximated by a function of your bankroll, expectation and variance. Therefore as you bank changes, so does your risk of ruin. There is no "once and for all" number.
If...
|
|
Forum: Poker Theory
05-18-2006, 01:07 AM
|
|
Replies: 13
Views: 348
Re: kelly criterion
Here is a text of the article. A new article that gives precise calculation and analysis of precise excess pot odds required is in the works. Comments welcome.
BillC
What Poker Players Can...
|
|
Forum: Poker Theory
03-19-2006, 05:26 PM
|
|
Replies: 13
Views: 348
Re: kelly criterion
The concept is a more precise version of the advice that one should forgo marginal +EV, high SD situatons. So for example if you have a longshot draw, you need slightly higher pot odds than dictated...
|
|
Forum: Probability
03-05-2006, 11:47 PM
|
|
Replies: 4
Views: 112
|
|
Forum: Probability
02-16-2006, 04:20 PM
|
|
Replies: 4
Views: 116
|
|
Forum: Probability
02-07-2006, 09:11 PM
|
|
Replies: 6
Views: 529
|
|
Forum: Poker Theory
02-07-2006, 07:30 PM
|
|
Replies: 8
Views: 362
Re: NL vs. Limit variance
You need to clarify whether you mean standard deviation or variance (the square of SD, measured in doolars squared).
You also need to give an idea of sample size.
|
|
Forum: Internet Gambling
12-07-2004, 05:43 PM
|
|
Replies: 60
Views: 2,284
|
