|
|
#21
12-06-2004, 02:16 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\"
Interesting, thanks for the post homer. After 13K hands im 95% sure im beating .5/1 between 6.44 and .91 BB/100 (average of 3.67). It seems you have to have an enormous amount of hands to have any certainty. I don't see how you can ever be sure of your win rate because you move up before you get enough hands for mathmatical certainty. I'm already at my trigger point for 1/2.
|
|
#22
12-06-2004, 02:37 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\"
[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking that once your SD levels off, it should be safe [/ QUOTE ] I think the issue is figuring out when that happens. Or should you just assume that once it stops changing a lot you're money?
|
|
#23
12-06-2004, 08:27 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm thinking that once your SD levels off, it should be safe [/ QUOTE ] I think the issue is figuring out when that happens. Or should you just assume that once it stops changing a lot you're money? [/ QUOTE ] Mason wrote an article once telling people how to compute SD. I believe he said you need 30 sessions. (this is of B&M play). I'll guess that's 5 hrs/session at 35 hands/hr. If I'm right, that comes out to about 5000 hands. -- Homer
|
|
#24
12-06-2004, 08:32 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\"
Neato. This should get an FAQ link.
J
|
|
#25
12-06-2004, 09:09 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\"
27,169
|
|
#26
12-06-2004, 09:54 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\"
Just what we need. Another annoying poster.
Lost Wages
|
|
#28
12-07-2004, 05:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\" definitive answer
To get within 10% of actual win rate you need a sample of about 40,000 hours. To get an estimate to within 20%, you need only 10,000 hours. I am assuming that SD/EV=10 here. If you want to figure it out using your own stats, the 95% confidence formula is
n=((196*SD)/(EV*r))^2 where n=no. of hands needed to estimate EV per hour (=win rate) to within r% of the actual EV. ^2 means "squared". BillC, Ph.D.
|
|
#29
12-07-2004, 06:18 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\" definitive answer
well, I'm not a phd, but I do know there is a big difference between 10000 hands and 10000 hours. So, does n= number of hands or number of hours. If it's hands it seems low, if it's hours, it seem A BIT MUCH! lol
Steve
|
|
#30
12-08-2004, 02:13 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: \"How many hands do I need to play...\"
Can someone please send me the excel spreadsheat to [email protected] !
My Excel is in another language (portuguese) and the formulas don't work here. But when I downloaded Homer's sheat "Streaks.xls" it worked.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
