River call against TAG

[Isura]

Villain is Sevenfigures or something. Seems like a TAG, aggressive and seems capable of bluffing. No other reads. Think of the hand from his perspective? What hands is he play this way against me (I'm lag/taggy).

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $126.40
UTG+1: $106.40
Isura: $133.70
Button: $96.75
SB: $77.75
BB: $199.88

Pre-flop: (6 players) Isura is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Isura raises to $5</font>, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($16.5, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Isura bets $11</font>, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($38.5, 2 players)
BB checks, Isura checks.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($38.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $35</font>, Isura calls

[Dbadbeats]

Again, I like this play. He was probably on the draw and your check on the turn probably convinced him you were drawing too. His bet on the river is a bluff.

NH and Nice call.

[Dan Bitel]

I think this is OKish. My worry is that he has 89

[cbloom]

88 or 89 are possible. Looks like a pretty nice call.

[djoyce003]

I don't hate the call because of his bet size. If he's going to bluff the river it will be pot sized. I think if he had 89/JT/88/44 he'd bet less hoping for a call from a weak hand.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is OKish. My worry is that he has 89

[/ QUOTE ]

What better hand does he except me to fold? Does he think I'll check JJ+ and AT, KT on this turn? My thoughts were that he could check/call to pick off a bluff with 98 or A7, but I dunno how he plays.

[Dan Bitel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is OKish. My worry is that he has 89

[/ QUOTE ]

What better hand does he except me to fold? Does he think I'll check JJ+ and AT, KT on this turn? My thoughts were that he could check/call to pick off a bluff with 98 or A7, but I dunno how he plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get me wrong, I probably still call here.

But just b/c c/c is the best line with 89 here, doesn't mean thats the line he takes.

The other possibility is that he has a sloplayed set/2pair and wanted to C/R the turn.

All in all, I think river call is +EV but high varience

[epdaws]

You're only beating a busted flush draw, and I'm not sure it's a busted flush draw often enough for this to be +EV. It's close, but I like the call because of the bet size and because it sends a message that he can't run you over on the river in the future.

[Spy Dog]

Fold or call preflop. Raising here is no good. You are better off raising 76s in this spot because callers won't have you dominated and you can get paid off large by TP if you make 2-pair or better. K7s is a different animal. Your only source of postflop profit comes from hitting a flush or getting them to fold to a Cbet. But you give some of that back when you are reverse dominated, which doesn't happen with a hand like 76s. Just limp.

Flop is fine.

Bet the turn. If you think he's drawing then make him pay. If he bluff raises, fine. Fold. Checking behind is going to make the river impossible to play well. Overcards, flush cards, straight cards. They are all possible and probable on the river. Betting the turn will make your river decisions easier and, as a result, more profitable.

River is so-so. Playing a hand like K7s for a raise preflop gets you in a bad situation here. It sure looks like he's bluffing a busted flush draw, but you only have 3rd pair and he's not giving you an attractive price.

[mmbt0ne]

FWIW, sevnfigures (if that was his name, and it wasn't an imposter) is gigabet's brother, and a damn good SNGer. I know nothing of his NL ring game, but I'd imagine he's at least solid.