River value Bet QJ?

PilotMatt · #1 04-28-2006, 01:02 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: PilotMatt is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, PilotMatt raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, PilotMatt bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, PilotMatt bets, SB calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, PilotMatt .....

Can i bet/fold this river, or should i check it through?

Edit: sorry i forgot to add he is 48/5/1, but it's only over 40 hands. No other reads

Nick C · #2 04-28-2006, 01:04 AM

That river card is not my first choice, but I would bet against a 1/2 unknown.

True · #3 04-28-2006, 01:06 AM

Bet this all day every day,

I would fold to a raise.

His range to check/call is huge and you dominate it, so make him pay to see the river with his inferior pays.

When he check/raises his range becomes flush/straight and the fold is easy. The only concern I have is that he is unknown and may be LAG however.

You will notice that the straight is far more unlikely than the flush because he would have needed runners on the flop.

True

ejay · #4 04-28-2006, 01:06 AM

bet/fold for me, i dont see him raising a hand that you can beat.

True · #5 04-28-2006, 01:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
bet/fold for me, i dont see him check/raising a hand that you can beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it is essentially the same, but a check/raise is stronger than a raise if he had position.

True

ejay · #6 04-28-2006, 01:25 AM

I agree, my mistake.

Nick C · #7 04-28-2006, 01:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: sorry i forgot to add he is 48/5/1, but it's only over 40 hands. No other reads

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the kind of player you want to be up against on this river.

CaucasianAsian29 · #8 04-28-2006, 01:33 AM

:grunch:
I'd value bet it for sure, over the long run you could be losing out on a lot not betting.

True · #9 04-28-2006, 01:52 AM

With this read, this is much easier, this player will not often c/r bluff this river, and when I say not often, I mean like 1% of the time.

True

Thorv · #10 04-28-2006, 02:01 AM

True owns this thread. Well done. Bet out.