2 pair in small pot, coordinated flop (6/12)

[earlytimes1]

I've been trying to think about this hand in terms of the 'two overpair hands' chapter of SSHE. I have a hand which is probably best, but extremely vulnerable, hence my flop equity edge is small. is waiting to raise a safe turn here the best play?

live 6/12 (oaks, for those who know it), standard loose-passive game.

hero is MP with Td8d

sb is aggressive but fishy, bb will call with any two but won't raise unless he's sure he's best.

one limp, hero limps, folds to sb who completes, bb checks.

flop (4sb, 4 players): Ts9h8s
sb bets, bb calls, one fold, hero ... ?

my thinking was that 21 turn cards were bad (6, 7, J, Q and the remaining spades), 26 good, so my pot equity would change dramatically on the turn, either for good or bad.

I felt a flop raise would result in two calls, and it getting checked to me on the turn; whereas a flop call would lead to the sb betting out on the turn, the bb calling, giving me the chance to raise a safe card. and if a really bad one came off (the Js) and it went bet raise I could consider dumping...

[freeDegas]

Your arguments look fine. Don't raise this flop.

There's a decent possibility however, that you are already behind. So, a fold looks although fine with too much action on the turn.

[Mygtar]

Good post, got me thinking. Which is what I need to do more of! At first I thought raise this and protect the vunerable holding, but as you said the raise would be called and the only time you would need the free card is if you did not improve, or they hit on the turn. At which point they may bet out if they improve. But after reading, and more importantly thinking about your reasons for the call, I agree with waiting for the turn to bet or raise depending on the situation.

[Jiggymike]

I would say this is more or less correct, except for the fact that I wouldn't have bothered to play preflop. Against only 2 players, you can probably raise this up, as the spades aren't as bad as you think and will probably only result in someone getting a flush draw on the turn, not making the flush. However, any card that puts 4 to a straight with the SB and BB in the hand is scary. Your reasoning is fine, so I think you played it right; however, you could raise and then slow down if a scare card comes on the turn like a J. Someone who makes their straight may try to check to you, hoping to check raise, and then you can bust their bubble by checking through and looking for a boat/5 straight on board.

With regards to earlier post, I would not fold this on the flop unless it went bet-raise-cold-call-3-bet-cap back to me. You could then be up against a set and a made straight already. Other than that, play on, playa.

[gopnik]

I am raising this flop. You got only two opponents and your hand is very strong.

The pot is pretty small and unless somebody has a strong draw, people will make a mistake by calling your flop raise.
A lot of turn cards will kill the action and it might be checked to you and you won't be able to raise.

[SweetLuckyMe]

Raise when it'll have the most effect of limiting the field. That's likely not to happen on the flop - although it could if someone early bet and you could raise, forcing the rest to call 2 small bets.

You've got substantial pot equity, so don't even think about ditching it on the flop unless the action is ridiculous before it gets to you.