How much do you risk on a read?

kurto · #1 04-25-2006, 04:52 PM

$25PLO8

I have a full buy in. I'm sitting with a guy that I have about 3 notes on. They were something like:
Bet with 8high flush draw on paired board.
Bet with 2 pair on monotone flop.
(and a third one similar in nature)

That being said-

I have A23Q in mid to late position. Your usual 3-5 limpers.

Flop Q22. 1 person min bets. 2 others call?!?!?!? I pot raise it. 1 caller. Then villain repots it.

My first instinct was, based on my notes, how can I fold?

In retrospect, there's only 2 queens and 1 other 2 out there... with both of them in there, one of them has to have at least the other 2 to call leaving only one hand for the 3rd player, no? (this seems more obvious now a day later)

Just curious if anyone besides me doesn't autofold here. (make me feel better)

TxRedMan · #2 04-25-2006, 05:02 PM

call the flop, raise the turn.

give a cheap card here for anyone trying for running low cards, especially since all low cards that aren't an ace or three give you the nut low to go with your full house, which is almost always the nuts here.

in regards to your question, dont fold here unless villain is an uber tight nit (like 15 vpip and 0.4 agg), you're going to get action from another deuce, and there's only one deuce that can beat you and that hand has to catch a king on the turn.

slow play this flop.

januarymute · #3 04-25-2006, 05:06 PM

Given his description, I'd shove back on this street.

I'd also raise preflop.

lemonPeel · #4 04-25-2006, 07:36 PM

how much do you risk on a read? if you trust your reads, you risk it all, the farm, the house and the wagon with the horse attached to it. but then again, I go busto just about every week, so what do i know? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Samara · #5 04-25-2006, 11:54 PM

Maybe I didn't understand this. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Based on reads, Villain is either a donk or likes to take risks, right? So if you only fear QQ here, re-pot it everytime, if he is legit, then be it, this is 25PL not 2500PL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

kurto · #6 04-26-2006, 10:47 AM

Having had time to think about this... I'm torn about my play. I did push and get it all in. He did have a pair of queens. I didn't suck out for the backdoor low.

The one thing that bothers me is, though the guy can be quite donktastic, I think I missed one of the biggest clues that should have indicated he had a monster.

With the board of Q22... And me having a Queen and a 2... someone, besides the donky guy, opened. 2 other players called (I have no idea what the 3rd guy could have had since all the queens and 2s are accounted for) and then I raised. If there was a call and a push... what could be out there? There's only one hand that someone might have called with (the other solitary 2) and only one hand that could possibly 3bet in the face of this action, and that's a set of queens.

I think if it was headsup from the beginning, with the second nuts, I should have gone broke. I think in this particular case there was enough clues to either lay this down or at least slowdown.

kurto · #7 04-26-2006, 10:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I didn't understand this. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Based on reads, Villain is either a donk or likes to take risks, right? So if you only fear QQ here, re-pot it everytime, if he is legit, then be it, this is 25PL not 2500PL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not concerned about the buyin. I'm just trying to improve my play. I don't want to learn to make bad decisions simply because its only a $25 table.

Samara · #8 04-26-2006, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not concerned about the buyin. I'm just trying to improve my play. I don't want to learn to make bad decisions simply because its only a $25 table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, let me rephrase. What can be his range here? Could it be A2xx, A2Qx, 2Qxx, QQxx? Even with all his raising, based on your notes on him notes I think you can't just assume 100% QQ. The low limit only makes this more probable, thats why I talked about the low buyin.

Then IMHO, it is OK to go broke here when your full gets beaten by his better full. He got lucky this time. He could probably make the same play if he didn't have the nuts, don't you think?

kurto · #9 04-26-2006, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Ok, let me rephrase. What can be his range here? Could it be A2xx, A2Qx, 2Qxx, QQxx? Even with all his raising, based on your notes on him notes I think you can't just assume 100% QQ. The low limit only makes this more probable, thats why I talked about the low buyin.

Then IMHO, it is OK to go broke here when your full gets beaten by his better full. He got lucky this time. He could probably make the same play if he didn't have the nuts, don't you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I here ya.

As I said in my last post in this thread, the only part I'm 'beating myself up about' is the information provided by the 3rd player in the hand who called my raise. If I was headsup against this guy, I think he would have been willing to put it all in with just an A2.

I am just wondering (with hindsight, of course) if I should have been able to glean that someone had QQ simply by the fact that 3 people were fighting this vigorously... If I had a Q2, one of the two certainly has to have a 2... what does that leave?

Maybe I am overthinking this now, but I know at the time I didn't stop to consider what the implications of the third player was. And if I had, could I have played it better.

Chimichonga · #10 04-26-2006, 04:59 PM

I am with you kurto. Admittedly, I don't have much hilo experience, but in a PLO game this would be an insta-muck.

Once the guy who initially led calls your raise and another guy comes over the top on a board like this, the liklihood of one have the case 2 and other other have the overfull go way, way, way, way up.

Even donkeys/maniacs get hands.

Oh and usually when there is a 4th or 5th guy calling a min-bet like this it is someone with a pocket pair looking to spike cheaply on the turn or in this case, maybe some total donk looking to hit a backdoor low draw.