|
|
#1
04-25-2006, 02:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Party 10/20 Weak flush draw+gutshot in 4 way pot, Push, Call or Fold?
This was a hand from a little while ago that has been nagging me because I think I can make the case for several possible options here. I'm doing this from memory because Empire's HH have been funky for me lately.
Party 10/20 full ring UTG+1 $3800 tight very aggro player opens for $70 MP1 $2200 NIT calls, MP3 $1799 new player seems very loose, very passive calls, Button (me) $2500 calls with 4s3s. (It's a full table, everyone else folds.) Flop is Js 6h 4s Pot is about $300-330 UTG leads out for $200. Leading into 3 people with respectable stacks here I'm assuming he has overpair and my experience with him is that if it's AA, he'll go all the way with it no matter how obvious it might seem that he's beat. MP1 calls the $200 as does MP3, making the pot over $1k. I HATE that MP3 calls since all I can reasonably put him on is a better flush draw but I don't know if he's a reasonable player and I'd guess that MP1 has a set here about 50% of the time and there is no way he's folding it for these size stacks no matter what I do. I can't see calling because unless a non spade 5 & especially if a spade comes and people keep betting I'm faced with the ugly decision of whether or not to fold because I doubt anyone folds a set with this kind of massive pot odds and will likely just push & I won't be able to tell difference between that and a higher flush which I have no outs to & pair plus flush draw is a possibility here. There's so much dead money, it's tempting to ignore all this potentially crap reasoning and push but if everyone calls and there is a set & higher flush draw, I'm basically dead meat drawing to 3 non spade 5's with massive ammounts of redraws against even that, but's it's a 1k pot and all my reasoning here is very speculative at best. So what's the correct line here? Push, call or fold? 
|
|
#2
04-25-2006, 03:09 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Party 10/20 Weak flush draw+gutshot in 4 way pot, Push, Call or Fold?
This is a very difficult situation. I hate folding because it's such a huge hand. Raising seems out of the question because of the size of the raise you'd have to make vs. a call you'd make on a 3-bet all in. Seems very unlikely that anyone here flopped a set except UTG maybe- that is, I can't see a situation where the second or third player to act could cold call in such a big pot with draws out there.
That said, I just don't like folding becuase of how big of a draw it is and how effective it will be to show down for your image whether you win or lose the pot. I go ahead and overbet with a shove- to me that screams of mid or bottom set or a very big draw- and you're basically asking pocket aces if they want to make a difficult decision. The problem with UTG's decision on this hand (assuming he has AA-QQ) is that he will either be a slight favorite or a huge dog, and he's got no folding equity vs. you since you are making the final bet. With his hands tied, you are putting him to a test... if you say he is aggro but tight, I would think he could get away from aces here figuring he was up against a two-pair/set type hand or a big draw.
|
|
#8
04-26-2006, 11:16 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Results
My instincts were mixed on this, I was very much leaning towards a push initially but I just couldn't convince myself that the likliest scenario was not multiple callers including a better flush draw (most likely from MP3, who would be getting correct odds even against a set)in which case I was dead meat in EV terms and quite likely a call from a possible set from MP1 so I very, very grudginlgy folded with 2 seconds left.
Turn was an offsuit 5 which is part of what's haunting me about this hand of course. UTG+1 checked (surprising me, I thought there was good chance he had AA here and would ride it into the ground as I'd seen numerous times before.) MP1 slightly overbet the pot to $1100-1200 or so pretty much screaming set at the top of his lungs and MP3 & UTG+1 folded. This was a rather unusual fold for me, normally with that many possible outs I'd just jam it in and let the dealer sort it out if I got callers but there were just too many cascade calling scenarios that would include a better flush draw that I couldn't convince myself I had more than 3 outs, especially because I couldn't see what logical hand MP3 would call with other than a better flush draw, though that was speculative as I didn't know him at all and he might have been a complete plank. Thanx to all who replied.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
