Turn Question

Ainex · #1 04-24-2006, 01:14 PM

I've been mulling this over for a bit now and I'm still not sure which play I like more: Bet to get value from PP's or diamonds or check to induce.

UTG is an unkwown TAG and at the time I think I was running a bit hot so probably appeared a bit T/LAG'ish. The fact that he doesn't cap PF or raise me on the flop probably indicates he's got AT/AJ or a PP probably 88-TT and maybe JJ. Now the turn completes a fd and pairs TP. I really don't see him having a Q here but he may not have raised a FD HU so it's possible he's trying to c/r. Essentially what is making me think a bit about this hand is that I'm most likely way ahead here fearing only a non diamond Ace on the river or his 1 or 2 set outs. If I am behind a passively flop played AQ/KQ (Which I doubt) or made flush a free card would be nice. If I valuebet he's folding his non A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hands but may call down with his PP's especially if he's got a diamond. If I check I may induce a river bluff from him or get him to call a bet with a PP he may have folded.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 7 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero...

So I suppose the question is: Will an unknown TAG call a turn bet with 88-TT more than he'll fold it?
Just writing this post has I think solidified my initial thought pattern but we'll see what you all think.

andyEB · #2 04-24-2006, 01:18 PM

Bet... and don't fold to a raise. You are likely ahead and you likely have many outs if you are not. (Most AG players would raise heads up with top pair so I'd say it's unlikely you're behind here).

davelin · #3 04-24-2006, 01:22 PM

Bet and it's not even close

sean c · #4 04-24-2006, 01:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet and it's not even close

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah dude a bet is going to take down this pot often. Often your getting called by a worse pp or a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw and the rare times he has a Q and check/raises your ass you have a re draw that beats trips. Bet/call here and i am calling a river bet against a TAG also.

milesdyson · #5 04-24-2006, 01:33 PM

great hand to post, and i check the turn.

and the river action on a blank is actually pretty interesting. like, if you check here and raise a blank river and fold to a 3-bet, it seems like you can always get the same two bets from pocket pairs, and its possible that he doesnt 3-bet a queen anyway.

Ainex · #6 04-24-2006, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet... and don't fold to a raise. You are likely ahead and you likely have many outs if you are not. (Most AG players would raise heads up with top pair so I'd say it's unlikely you're behind here).

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay I need to clarify my post a bit here. I KNOW I'm ahead here almost every time. When I bet it is CLEARLY for value and with the 2nd nut flush draw the thought of folding never entered my mind.

The problem is that I expect him to fold to this turn bet nearly EVERY time. He will only call with his Ad hands and possibly his PP's. The question is what has more value: Betting and watching him fold most of the time or giving him a free card with 1-2 outs in the hopes that I can induce a bluff or get him to call the river with his PP. Which is greater: The amount of times he calls the turn+river compared to the amount of times he bluffs/calls a river bet minus the times he improves on the river. I'm assuming that this villain will not pay off a river raise.

davelin · #7 04-24-2006, 01:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
great hand to post, and i check the turn.

and the river action on a blank is actually pretty interesting. like, if you check here and raise a blank river and fold to a 3-bet, it seems like you can always get the same two bets from pocket pairs, and its possible that he doesnt 3-bet a queen anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm...looking at the hand again you're probably right it's closer than originally thought. I'm still liking bet the turn here, I can't see some lower pocket pairs calling a raise on the river however.

sean c · #8 04-24-2006, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
great hand to post, and i check the turn.

and the river action on a blank is actually pretty interesting. like, if you check here and raise a blank river and fold to a 3-bet, it seems like you can always get the same two bets from pocket pairs, and its possible that he doesnt 3-bet a queen anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey miles what about the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw your gonna miss a bet from these hands and after the turn check i dont OOP TAG is taking a shot at this river with anything but a pp.

deception5 · #9 04-24-2006, 01:49 PM

I check turn / raise inevitable river bet as well.

SixT4 · #10 04-24-2006, 01:56 PM

*Grunch*

I bet this in an instant. You may very likely be ahead. If you're check-raised, you still have a draw to the 2nd nut flush.