Preflop push with QQ in Live MTT??

[anfernee]

This is a live tourney, my apologies if the structure of this post is poor.

NLHE $100+$10 36 player tourney.
Starting stacks 5000t.
30 minute blinds with Level 1 @ 25/50.
Hand #4
Stacks are as closely as follows:

Hero - 4950t
BB - 4700t
UTG - 4900t
UTG+1 - 3950t
MP1 - 5000t
MP2 - 4950t
MP3 - 4975t
CO - 4900t
Button(Villain)- 6675t

Pre-flop: Hero is SB with Qs, Qc.
Hero posts SB 25.
BB posts 50.
Folds around to Button.
Button raises 150 to 200t.
Hero raises 350 to 550t.
BB folds.
Button re-raises 1700 to 2250t.
Hero's action?

Background info/reads/thoughts:
It's the beginning of a live MTT. MTT is a regular tourney and it is my first time playing at that venue. The party I was with told me that the villain had won the previous MTT and was a pretty solid and aggressive player. Villain has played every hand dealt so far. Villain raked in a pretty decent pot on the very first hand. He limped UTG with A4s and flopped top pair with 4 to nut flush. 5 limpers in the pot, he pot size bets the flop, 2 callers. Check/calls the turn, one player folds. Leads out the river after the 4th suit hits the board, other player folds, villain shows nut flush. He also won a decent pot on the 2nd hand without a showdown.
It's tough to say how he plays based on seeing just 3 hands. This leads me to the hand in question.

It folds around to the Villain who's on the button. He throws in a 3xBB raise. My first thought is that he's stealing the blinds. After all, he is the chip leader at the table and who really wants to tangle with him at an early stage of the tourney?
My range for the Villain is PP 22-AA, AK-AT, KQ-KT,QJ-89s.
Maybe he's creative and is stealing with 65s.

At any rate, my hand, pocket Queens, is pretty good heads up and I re-raise to eliminate the possibility of the BB calling with 3:1 if I decide to just call OOP. The BB folds and Villain thinks for about 10 seconds before he re-raises me with 1700 on top. Now my possible range for him shrinks to PP 88-AA, AK-AJ,KQ,QJ,JT. I've never played with the person before and have no real read besides the fact that the people I came with said he's solid and aggressive.

Now, out of 1152 possible hands, the only hands I fear are AA,KK,AK - a very small percentage. There are 6 ways to deal pocket AA,KK and ~16 ways?? to deal A/K for 28 hands.

Those hands cover ~2% of all possible hands that can be dealt. Up against 12 combinations of AA/KK, I'm at best, a 4:1 dog/20% to win. Against AKs or AKo, I'm at a coinflip. All other hands(all ~1122 of them) I'm either ~7:3 favorite against Ax,Kx or close to ~4:1 favorite against anything else.

I like my chances so far but I don't feel comfortable committing close to half my stack out of position against an aggressive player. At this point, my choice is to either push or fold. However, it's still early in the tourney where if I just call, I can still play with a half stack but..calling is the worst option no?

As I think about his re-raise I have a clock called on me. I've got 60 seconds to respond or my hand is dead. It seems pretty obvious to the table that I've got a big hand due to the fact that I'm taking a while to make my decision. If I make a big laydown of QQ, the table could see me as a weakling and run me over knowing that I can laydown big hands - especially the villain to my right.

With no real read on the Villain, does the hero call half his stack to see a flop, fold pocket queens with a 550t loss at the early stage of a MTT and still have 4400t left with to play, or push the rest of his stack???

Results to be posted after feedback.
Thank you 2+2.

[tubasteve]

Easy push IMO. I would punish that weak looking reraise too with a very liberal range. Lucky for you that your hand isn't weak.

Your post was too long; instead of counting combinations of hands just use www.pokerstove.com and post the results.

Ex. based on the range you gave:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.9992 % 34.16% 00.84% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, QJs, AJo+, KQo, QJo }
Hand 2: 65.0008 % 64.16% 00.84% { QQ }

This range is too loose IMO, but you are a solid favorite against it and any similar ranges. It's hard to find a range for this guy that isn't a push, unless you have a physical tell that he has AA or KK.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.9243 % 39.94% 00.99% { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 59.0757 % 58.09% 00.99% { QQ }

I think this is a more accurate range. Against this range I might see the flop first, but I'm definitely not folding.

[Bolero]

How will the table know you're a weakling? Just because you went into the tank? I wouldn't worry too much about that. I would guess, from the stacks, that you haven't shown down too many hands. You still have time to craft an image without risking your stack.

Having said that, I would push here. Your re-raise probably looked extremely tame to him. If you are confident of his range, I think you have to go with it.

[other1]

Well, I definitely agree with you that the choices are push or fold. With no real read on villian unless you hit a set you are completely crippled after the flop with a smoothcall. My gut feeling tends to be you are probably good here. The chances he really has AA or KK are slim. If he has AK there is a chance he will lay it down not wanting to risk most of his stack on a coinflip on the 4th hand of the tourny. Any other hand of course you want him to call with.

All that being said, you haven't really commited that much to the hand at this point, and its way early in the tournament, so I wouldn't fault you for laying it down. Since the hand is bothering you and you posted it I'm guessing you probably pushed and he called with AA or KK..? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[anfernee]

Apologies for the long-winded post, I'll be more concise next time.

other1 - Bingo!
Result:
Hero re-raises 2700. Hero is all-in for 4950t.
Villain insta-calls with AA.

Not much else you can do about that. Bad timing/confrontation is all. That's pokah.

tubasteve- thx for the pokerstove link.

I agree with you (tuba/bolero) regarding my preflop raise. After the fact, I thought my re-raise to 550t was a little bit on the low side. I should have bumped it up as the villain was getting 4:3 if he were to call my PFR in position.

Based on the sheer numbers, I figured I was in a good spot to push. At a 97-98% chance against anything but an overpair, I really can't find a much better spot to push.
I chalk it up to it being not my day. I also thought about folding and regaining my chips as it was still very early in the tourney. I would only be down ~10% of my stack, not that bad considering the blinds cost 75 a round. I went for the knockout punch and got pwned. I still liked my decision, just not the results [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

TY all for the feedback.

[greg44]

You really think that a player, supposing he's good solid and aggressive wants to raise about 1/3 of his stack with AJ? I put his range on JJ+,AQ+ minimum. If he's good he's not gonna be worried about stealing blinds at the lowest level of the tournament. Later in a tournament when stealing blinds do become a larger factor this is a push but at this part of the tournament I have a hard time putting him on any other hand you can beat then JJ or AK (if you consider that ahead).

[betgo]

I like the push. Even though you have 100xBB, this is button versus BB. I know strealing blinds isn't important at this stage, but this is essentially 3-handed. Plus, you don't know if you are up against a fish or maniac the first hand of a $100 live tournament.

[rmgustaf]

Good tournament players won't fight over blinds by the fourth hand of the tourney, especially if they're only 75 a pop.

I can't say I would have laid this hand down or done anything different than you, but I would have kicked myself really hard afterwards for risking everything so early in the tournament.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Good tournament players won't fight over blinds by the fourth hand of the tourney, especially if they're only 75 a pop.

I can't say I would have laid this hand down or done anything different than you, but I would have kicked myself really hard afterwards for risking everything so early in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with risking everything early in the tournament?

The issue isn't fighting over blinds. It is just that the meaning of a 3-bet 3-handed is different than if both players are in early position. I don't think you can assume you are not significantly ahead with QQ.

I play plenty of heads up SNGs where you start with 100xBB. I would never fold QQ preflop in level 1. In fact, I probably wouldn't fold TT or AQ.

[zmigsthatkid]

[ QUOTE ]
I play plenty of heads up SNGs where you start with 100xBB. I would never fold QQ preflop in level 1. In fact, I probably wouldn't fold TT or AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

i see your point but a heads up SNGs are a completely different situation at a full table the odds of a premium hand being dealt are much higher... not to say that i would've folded QQ in this spot