Raised on River with a Set

Ricks · #1 04-22-2006, 06:51 PM

No reads on UTG+2 but his stats are:
50/1/.8 after 200 hands

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB folds.

Turn: (7 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

River: (11 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, CO folds, Hero??

I want to RR but, by villains stats, I believe he is capable of chasing down the str8. Should I call or RR.

kerowo · #2 04-22-2006, 06:55 PM

3-bet and call a cap. I would imagine his having two pair or a smaller set are more likely than him having a straight.

deleteduser · #3 04-22-2006, 09:32 PM

I dont see why its more likely he has a set or two pair than a straight, he called down in a large multiway pot and raises on the river when the straight card comes. Two pair or a lower set IMO would have acted more aggressivly on the flop and turn than to wait till the river unless hes playing A10. I just call if your read is strong, if not your set is very strong and worth a raise...

Stoo_Pot · #4 04-22-2006, 09:48 PM

Seems as though he had odds for the gutshot, no? At least with the other two calling on the turn.

sccrneo · #5 04-22-2006, 10:13 PM

I just call the raise. While you are probably still good, its very possible for him to have chased down the straight. Even on a gutshot, he was getting odds to draw and if does only have the two pair, thats fine. But I dont want to be calling a cap in this situation so I would rather just call the raise.

inferno · #6 04-23-2006, 05:57 AM

grunch: im calling here

Ricks · #7 04-23-2006, 12:22 PM

Thanks to all.

I called. He had AT. I am still not sure which action would produce the higher EV.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #8 04-23-2006, 12:24 PM

call

he has 2 pair a decent amount of the time here, but u need to be 67% sure to make it +ev... i dont think we have that

borges · #9 04-23-2006, 12:29 PM

This is close....His play would fit with getting 2-pair on the river:

2-pair hands: Straight Hands:

AT-9 combos Q8-16 combos
JT -9 combos KQ-16 combos
T9-9 combos 87- 16 combos

I think the straight hands are way less likely to be played than the two pair hands....also on the turn, he didn't really have odds to chase the gutshot...if he's good enough to be figuring odds, then he would have known that there was no guarantee that the two behind him on the turn wouldn't fold or raise, both action prejudical to his cause....

On the other hand, to raise this river, you should be confident that you are ahead 55-60% of the time (greater than 50 since you might get capped)....I don't think you can be that confident....so I just call here also.