25NL Q9 makes two pair when the 3rd flush card comes on turn

[derdo]

Is betting on the flop bad?
What do I do on the turn?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $14.70
UTG+1: $22.43
MP1: $8.51
MP2: $25.70
MP3: $23.25
CO: $13.72
Button: $26.62
SB: $26.49
Hero: $32.11

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5.5, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero ???.

[BalugaWhale]

b/f is pretty standard i think.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
b/f is pretty standard i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call only with odds to fill up. Possibly impied if he's a mega donk.

[dardo]

Here the question would be, what is the probability of villain having a flush?

Being that he filled from the SB, he could have anything.

Usually most common holdings would be :

9x suited (no spade), 9x non suited x&gt;7, T8, 56, 47, 88, 66, AK, AQ, TT, JJ, 44,77, 99 or any suited spade

9x - suited (not suited spade) you have
3 x 13 = 39 combinations

9x x&gt;=7 - no suited (x no 9 )
8 x 12 = 96

9x -- total -- 135 combinations

T8,56,47,AK,AQ - 15 x 5 = 60

JJ,TT,88,66 - 6 x 4 = 24

44,77,99 = 6 x 3 = 18

Any suited [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] -- 78

Combinations you beat -- 219
Cominations that beats you -- 96

You will be ahead -- 219/315=&gt; 69,5% of times

Briefly, him having a weak top pair and calling has more weight than him having a flush as long as he is a bad player.

Most of the times a hand you beat is not going to call a turn bet, but I think it's necesary since you don't have any spade on your hand. And opponent will have it 44% of the time.

What happens if opponent call and river is blank?

I would check if he checks, after calling a bet at the flushed board I would give more credibility to his flush.

What if he bets? I think you have to call if the pot odds are good, but I would feel my two pair are no good.

----

Now my question: If opponent bets into you (A moderate bet of 3$), would you call it? Maybe with two pair yes, because you are ahead of practically all his range except a flush, but with a pair?

regards,

dardo

[derdo]

thanks for the thorough analysis dardo. since there are two more oppoenents in the hand I think check/fold should be the right strategy here...

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
b/f is pretty standard i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... I like that play much better than c/c which is what I normally do here.

[dardo]

Yep, sure. Thought it was HU.

regards,

dardo