PLO8 $100 with a monster hand

[neverforgetlol]

this is at prima with lots of crazy europeans. on the flop, i think he was chasing a low and with a diamond draw i was probably freerolling. i'm glad he checked the turn so i could get a free card. i was also taking a shot here so i was a bit nervous. obviously i got lucky on the river, but how is my play to that point? specifically should i reraise preflop and/or the flop?

Prima Poker skin
Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
5 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $10</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($21.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $22.5</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($66.5, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($66.5, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $67.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB calls all-in $25.5</font>.
Uncalled bets: $42 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $117.5

[davebreal]

I would always re-raise with AA3x pre-flop, especially suited. The purpose would be to have AA hold up for high at showdown and A3 hold up for low. In a multiway pot you will need much more improving for this hand to win (although it's still a strong hand).

[jogumon]

I'd repot this pre flop. You're in position, and have a monster starting hand. Since you have AA, he mostly likely has 4 low cards, rather than the other AA. I like your hand here.

On the flop, what hand do you think he has that is in better shape than yours? Unless he re-raised you preflop with TJQK (very unlikely), you're ahead now, and have the nut flush draw. The backdoor 2nd nut low helps a bit, but opponent almost certainly has A2, so you'd probalby rather a low not show. Get all your money in here, or force him to fold his low cards. Pot it now.

[gergery]

Repot preflop. why didn't you?

Reraise usually but sometimes call on flop. If I call, it is to trap and get all the money in on the turn/river because I put him on a bluffing A2 who will fold to a bet here.

Bet the turn. He is very likely hoping for a free card with A2.

River fine, but I'll bet money he had A2 or brain damage.

This plays much easier if you put him on a range of hands on each street based on his bets and bayesian probability and determine what you should do based on his likely holdings.

-g

[neverforgetlol]

ok, i figured this is what would be said. i think if i reraise preflop we get all-in right then and the rest is moot.

but as i mentioned i was taking a shot so i started out passive.

given the players i was quite sure i was NOT against A2.

lastly i'm a statistician, so could you elaborate more on the bayesian stuff? how is prior/posterior applied is that preflop/postflop?

[neverforgetlol]

what multiway pot? it was only me and him after he reraised.