QQ, river raise on paired A board.

[Redeye]

Villian is on the boarder between TAG and LAG. Hasn't done anything out of hand, but is aggressive.


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises

[Nick C]

I probably just call because I'm bad at folding to 3-bets on the river.

This does seem like a good spot for a raise-fold to me, though. Villain probably doesn't have an ace, and there's a decent chance he'll pay off with the jack or whatever it is that he does have.

It's possible too that he slowed down on the turn because he was worried about his kicker or because he was going for a screwplay (hopefully with J8, if so [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]), but my guess is that there's value in the raise.

[Redeye]

So you don't mind the turn check here? This is one of these hands where I liked it at first, then absolutely hated it, then kind of liked it again. If I think about it more, I'll probably find a reason to hate it again.

I was planning on folding to a river 3-bet. I figured that on the turn a bet may get c/red by a bigger hand and I'll usually pay 3BB to show down a loser or may fold a complete bluff. On the negative side, I give something like KQ a free river, which has 7 outs against me, but thats probably not a huge deal in this small pot. There are probably other hands I give free cards to here as well, but 9T is the only one that has a fair amount of outs that probably shouldn't get a free card in this pot.

[True]

I like the turn check, I think that most hands are check/folding here and not check/calling so you don't lose value by not betting. You put the bux in on the river where it doesn't cost a lot to call down and it is far more likely that he doesn't have an ace.

True

[Buckmulligan]

If you'll raise the river, why would you not bet this turn? The turn check is awfully weak, IMO. You obviously checked the turn because you were afraid you were behind to an ace, so why then would you come alive on the river?

[Redeye]

While the turn action looks weak, I am not checking necessarily because I'm scared of the ace, but because I think 1 of 3 things will likely happen.

- He is check folding after taking a shot, or possibly a little pair.

- He check-calls a weak J or 8.

- He is going to check-raise me

He is an aggressive player, so check-rasing is likely here. I will have to fold to a check-raise in this small pot because I can't call 3 BB to show down my QQ. This risks getting bluffed out of the pot, although its so small it probably doesn't matter.

He's aggressive enough to value bet a J here on the river, which means I'm probably getting better equity on the river bet since I will beat some of the hands he bets and be behind to others. Also, in the rare circumstance that the ace pairs, I feel a raise here has pretty good value.

I think I have less value with a turn bet and am not risking a ton by checking in a small pot.

[Buckmulligan]

If you weren't concerned that he had an ace, you would never check this, end of story. Coming alive on the river, then contradicts this.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
If you weren't concerned that he had an ace, you would never check this, end of story. Coming alive on the river, then contradicts this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying I'm not at all concerned he has an ace. What I was trying to say is that I will often bet the turn here against the right opponent, and will often bet all 3 streets with an underpair to the board. I just don't think betting the turn here is necessarily the right play. It may be, but I'm not yet convinced.

Are you folding this turn to a c/r?

[Buckmulligan]

ya, the turn is an easy fold to a checkraise, but I really don't see any real reason to expect a checkraise. It looks more to me like he pulled a feel bet on the flop with a non ace pair, to see where he stands. I like your flop action, but on the turn, I don't expect him to check many better hands and I don't expect him to fold many worse ones.