When is the pot too big to fold.

[antneye]

An answer I gave in another thread leads me to ask this question.

How many bets need to be in the pot for your 1 bet call to become automatic on the river?

There has to come a point where your read cannot be accurate enough to offset the pot odds you are being offered. Is there any magic number you use to cross the threshold and disregard what your heart and brain are telling you the villain has?

[milesdyson]

wait for it, wait for it....

SURPRISE! IT DEPENDS.

having a "magic number" is pointless. i've probably folded a set in a 20 bb pot for "one last bet."

[antneye]

But could your read ever be as accurate as you represent by folding getting 20-1? Regardless of how good someone may be, they can never be correct that high of a % of times.

I know Miller says that you need to make these calls. I am just saying there must be a % factor that nor read can ever beat, so a call becomes automatic.

[davelin]

I'm never folding a 1000BB pot on the river for one bet.

[Eeegah]

I'll answer your question if you can answer these for me:
1) Who?
2) What?
3) If?

[antneye]

Eegah,

I think you are missing my point. There has to be a certain point where a read cannot go beyond a certain confidence level. Thats really where I am trying to go with this. I am not looking for a magic pill. Can you ever be 100% sure your read is right? No. If so, there has to be a point where statistically you are making a mistake folding based on your read.

I understand the factors that go into making a poker decision, I'm not looking to discuss that. Sorry if it seems like I am being obtuse here.

[stuartharris]

There's no magic number for me. In fact, I can imagine a pot with 30BB, where I have TPTK or a set against a coordinated board and the action's been hot and heavy. On the river someone opens and I have people left to act behind and I just muck. Regardless of the size of the pot, there's no point throwing in 4 more BB against people who clearly are ahead of me.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not looking for a magic pill.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you're looking for a magic NUMBER.

And, it depends. If I've been playing HU Show 'Em for 10k hands against a guy, I'm going to have a pretty high confidence level in my reads on him. If the pot is 1,000 bets, I'm going to call for one more with anything that I've made it to the river with. Your confidence level in your read is dependent on the opponents you have in the hand, and your reliance on that read is going to be impacted by the size of the pot. You can't objectify this process.

[nomadtla]

I believe it was Shilix who said something to the effect of. If you are playing lets say at the Belagio 2/4 and you are heads up in a hand but "know" you are beat. But wait some sweet high roller that you've seen on ESPN walks by and drops a million dollar chip into the pot. Do you call that river bet from your opponent. NO!!!!
If you KNOW you are beat even though your pot odds are rediculous you are still wasting your 4 dollars to make that call, and that is just stupid.

To sum up: THERE IS NO MAGIC NUMBER

[Buzz-cp]

39BB not goot enuf...my hand is no goot.