Anybody know the odds of hitting the b&m bad beat jackpots?

[the_doantster]

Aces full beat with four of a kind or better - Quads over Quads - Stright flush beat by higher straight flush

Is it kinda like winning the lottery?

[esch]

Not an actual calculation, but I've played enough hands to have had 5 Royals (to indicate sample size) and only one time was there a PP bad beat situation (must have Quad 8s beat). (I had q-high diamond straight flush beating quad 10s).

Unfortunately, this was on a non-bad beat table.

It's better probability than winning the Powerball though. Especially if it's just aces full that needs to be beat. Not sure if the ROI isn't comparable though considering the jackpot rake.

[Photoc]

I heard it was 1 in something.

[bav]

http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp46.pdf

The above computes the odds of hitting PartyPoker's quad-8's bad beat in a 10-handed game. After 20 pages the end result is: 1 in 155,000.

We leave as an exercise for the reader adjusting these computations for other bad-beat variations.

[yad]

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp46.pdf

The above computes the odds of hitting PartyPoker's quad-8's bad beat in a 10-handed game. After 20 pages the end result is: 1 in 155,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is a big underestimate, because many times people fold hands that, if played to the river, would have been part of a bad beat jackpot.

[Photoc]

I would assume these odds are only if all 10 players stayed to the river to give all hands a shot at making a hand to get beat.

The true odds are much much worse.

[cpk]

I ran one of the TTH simulations some years ago and ISTR that AAATT beaten by quads or better (very common jackpot structure) is in the neighborhood of 1 in 90,000, give or take for variations in rules, such as whether you have to have a pocket pair in hand for quads and so forth.

At about 35 hands/hr, that's once every 2500 hours or so. I hit one after approximately 3500 hours of career live play.

[tom10167]

2:1

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp46.pdf

The above computes the odds of hitting PartyPoker's quad-8's bad beat in a 10-handed game. After 20 pages the end result is: 1 in 155,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is a big underestimate, because many times people fold hands that, if played to the river, would have been part of a bad beat jackpot.

[/ QUOTE ]

However this thread is asking about the B&M jackpots so there is very little fear of your opponents folding ever.