Fold for 1 bet in big pot

Redeye · #1 04-12-2006, 09:53 PM

No reads, I recently sat down, which probably even makes this more suspect. SB has the name similar to that of a good 2+2er, but I don't know for sure if it is.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG folds, MP raises, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, MP 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls, MP calls.

River: (21 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP calls, Hero folds.

Cumulonimbus · #2 04-12-2006, 09:58 PM

You can almost limp this preflop. I sometimes do and sometimes don't. Turn cap sucks. Given that you wanted to put in that many bets, river is an easy call. My line is raise turn once, call river.

Redeye · #3 04-12-2006, 10:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can almost limp this preflop. I sometimes do and sometimes don't. Turn cap sucks. Given that you wanted to put in that many bets, river is an easy call. My line is raise turn once, call river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually I'll limp w/o a read, but usually two limpers are loose enough in this game for this to be a raise IMO. I don't think preflop is too interesting because it probably doesn't matter either way.

Why do you think the turn cap sucks? Don't just say its bad, tell me why. What range do you give these guys? Remember there is also a guy that is very likely going to call two bets here.

kidcolin · #4 04-12-2006, 10:10 PM

I don't _hate_ the fold, but I don't love it. It seems reasonable, but getting 23:1 a call can't be too wrong, if at all.

The rest of the hand sucks, though. First off, 3-bet the damn flop. Secondly, never cap that turn, never ever. He just bet 3-bet into a PFR who did the "wait for the turn" raise. That's showing a ton of strength. Wait 'til he proves he's captain retardo before getting this aggressive with him.

silkyslim · #5 04-12-2006, 10:21 PM

3 bet the flop and see what happens. i just call the turn 3 bet. it isnt obvious to me, is it the ace or the bet after we cap that makes you want to fold?

Redeye · #6 04-12-2006, 10:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3 bet the flop and see what happens. i just call the turn 3 bet. it isnt obvious to me, is it the ace or the bet after we cap that makes you want to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not have folded to a spade alone and a river donk by SB, I would not have folded to a 9 or A that wasn't a spade after an SB donk. I wouldn't have folded if SB checked and the MP guy bet into me.

Redeye · #7 04-12-2006, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The rest of the hand sucks, though. First off, 3-bet the damn flop. Secondly, never cap that turn, never ever. He just bet 3-bet into a PFR who did the "wait for the turn" raise. That's showing a ton of strength. Wait 'til he proves he's captain retardo before getting this aggressive with him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't normally cap the turn here. I had to stop and think about the hand. SB donks into 4 players after a preflop raise. He easily could have iso'd a jack or king here. I think this puts SB on a very narrow range of hands which include flush draws, an OESD like QT, or a set of 2s. With this board, 2s is very unlikely because he would have jammed this flop. If not, he definately either donks the turn or 3bets the first time he has a chance.

Now, I didn't have much of a read on MP at all, and thats why I didn't post anything. There were about 8 hands played previous to this. I had notive MP raised a few times and was in many of those hands. So I can't say he's a donk for sure, but lets say its slightly more into that category than the other.

What hands could MP possibly have here? He was the 2nd limper, that makes JJ, and KK very unlikely. 22 is somewhat unlikely since he probably would've capped the flop. The 2s for MP are probably slightly more likely than for SB.

The reason I called the flop is because I think SB has a flush draw or OESD here about 75+% of the time. Maybe I should've 3bet here, but I thought my equity would be better on the turn and I thought it likely MP would bet again. (This may have been my biggest mistake).

MP's bet 3bet on the turn makes little sense. I think SB is calling the cap a huge % of the time which is bankrolling any mistake I make here in misreading MPs hand. I just think I am ahead here a huge % of the time. I cannot see any hands that make sense for MP that I am behind. The other possibility was that I split with another KJ, the most likely combo for MP, IMO. This was the reason I capped the turn, because I thought I might be splitting and I thought I was getting almost an extra BB from SB.

kidcolin · #8 04-12-2006, 11:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I called the flop is because I think SB has a flush draw or OESD here about 75+% of the time. Maybe I should've 3bet here, but I thought my equity would be better on the turn and I thought it likely MP would bet again.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a good point. He's getting like 17:2 if you 3 bet. It's a little tricky because there's SB and BB. However, this isn't like the KK wait for the turn example in SSHE, because you have top two, and not just an overpair. So you're pushing a much stronger edge. But waiting for the turn is worth considering.

MPs only reasonable hand that beats you is 22. So you may have a point on the turn cap, too. Man I suck lately.

The As was the worst possible card, completing the straight and flush. Still, though, I have a hard time folding in that spot.

cconnard · #9 04-12-2006, 11:34 PM

i call this for one bet, someone thinks that their ace is good more than 4.5% of the time.