Scary Board Faces 5th Street Raise

[Trencherman]

Villain here seems decent over about 30 hands. What should be my plan for the rest of the hand?

7 Card Stud High ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.20 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (2.60 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___ ???

[Bremen]

Call down. At 1/2 you'll see way too many morons to make folding ever correct unless you have way more than 30 hands on him.

[sfairgrieve]

I think you can just call down on him. His most likely hand is kings and queens. He might have trip kings and he might have trip queens, but he might really be a donk and have a pair of queens.
You still have some room to improve, you are about 3-1 to improve to a boat or a flush. When you figure that you will call 2 bets to the river and have 6.6 bets in the pot

In fact, even if we ignore your back door flush you then you are 4-1 to improve to a full house which will beat whatever he is holding (unless he improves to quads).

If you figure your boat to be sure to win then you are actually calling 2 BB to win 7.6 BB and possibly 8.6 or 9.6BB (if he does have the full house and reraises you on the river).

So now you see that even just based on your live 2 pair you are getting proper odds to draw to the river at the very least. If he does just have kings and queens then he may check behind on the river when you check and you still win too.

Add to this that you could still easily have the best hand and calling down becomes the definite correct strategy.

Against a good player who you know would only raise there with trips then calling to the river and folding when you don't improve is the right play. (But to fold on the river you better be almost 90% sure he wouldn't play 2 pair that way, otherwise folding becomes wrong).

So even against a pretty good player calling all the way might still be correct unless he pairs catches an open pair on 6th street, in which case you can draw to the river and then fold unimproved.

[Jeffage]

If villain seems decent, then you are [censored] since he should give you credit for aces up. Perhaps he turned trips on 4th or started with a monster hand like rolled up trips. I doubt he'd raise 5th with kings up if he's decent. You're getting 5.6-1 on what looks like a 10.5-1 shot - if he's good, I find a fold in many cases. If unsure, I guess you can call, but you're looking bad most of the time. If he is loose aggro, you can call. You may be able to call the raise and see if he takes a free one on 6th or not. Or you can call, 5th and 6th, but fold river without improvement since it's doubtful he'd fire another barrel with an inferior hand on the river since it should be "obvious" you'll call down.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
His most likely hand is kings and queens

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree if he seems decent. Even an idiot would have to put here on aces up and is unlikely to raise if he can't beat it. Kings up is certainly not "likely," but it sure as hell optimistic.

Jeff

[sfairgrieve]

How do you get 10.5-1. This isn't holdem. There are only 41 unseen cards so you are 9-1 on the next card. And if you look at the math and consider implied odds you can see calling down to those 4-outs is profitable.

As far as mostly likely hand is Kings and Queens. With only 30 hands on a person, seems decent is very far from actually being decent. I have sat at table for 30-40 hands and saw people who looked to be pretty good only to realize a few hands later that they were ok and must have been getting trash those 30-40 hands. It is unlikely in 30 hands that you will get the chance to see how someone plays in delicate situations so that you can get a true judge of their skill.

So seems decent just means he could be a slightly better donk that overplays hands that are often good but become very marginable in other situations. But even ignoring his trip hand you have enough chance to improve and with the pot size and implied odds you are justified in seeing the river and then making a decision there.

[dsaxton]

My immediate impression on reading the history was (K K) K, but I'd still call down unless I knew the other guy was very conservative. I think folding this after only seeing this guy play 30 hands is entirely too weak.