thoughts on flop?

[morgant]

der Deutsche is at seat 0 with $20226.
robopok is at seat 1 with $16688.
jdags21 is at seat 2 with $9400.
HERO is at seat 3 with $26973.
batoelrob is at seat 4 with $9388.
guaglione is at seat 5 with $69748.
ggducky is at seat 6 with $9697.
smarx is at seat 7 with $36592.50.
E B is at seat 9 with $2300.
The button is at seat 3.

batoelrob posts the small blind of $50.
guaglione posts the big blind of $100.

der Deutsche: -- -- -- --
robopok: -- -- -- --
jdags21: -- -- -- --
HERO: Ah Kh Jd 3c
batoelrob: -- -- -- --
guaglione: -- -- -- --
ggducky: -- -- -- --
smarx: -- -- -- --
E B: -- -- -- --

Pre-flop:

ggducky folds. smarx folds. E B folds. der
Deutsche folds. robopok folds. jdags21 raises to
$350. HERO calls. batoelrob calls. guaglione
calls.

Flop (board: 2h 7h 4d):

batoelrob checks. guaglione checks. jdags21 bets
$1400. HERO calls. batoelrob raises to $7000.
guaglione folds. jdags21 goes all-in for $9050.


HERO???

[joewatch]

Fold preflop. Fold flop. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Silent A]

Seems simple enough. You need 27% equity to call (assuming batoelrob calls) and you have the nut flush draw + non-nut gutshot. Your equity could be as low as 15% and could be as high as 35% (assuming they have hands that justify the action). If your str8 draw is no good then villains only need 1 or 2 hearts between them to make a call solid -EV. Unless you have reason to believe one of them is overplaying a big pair I suspect you're in the 20-22% range, thus fold.

If the gutshot draw was to a nut straight it's an easy call.

[Filip]

My first thought was to call so fold probably is correct [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Is Jdags on tilt? If so are batoelrob trying to isolate him?

I think the EV is gonna be so close that fold/call will not really matter in the long run. That said they can pry my already invested 17.5bb from my cold dead hand and i call.

[Chimichonga]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you have reason to believe one of them is overplaying a big pair...

[/ QUOTE ]

This very well may be true... That game seems to have soo much gamble to it, though I am sure that depends a lot on who is sitting at the table. The advantage of having a big stack at this table may very well make calling here OK. It is going to be close anyways.

[RickyG]

Obviously most of us don't play at these levels, and with no reads its even harder, but overall you're going to have anywhere from 20-40% ev. Don't know if it's worth half your stack to gambool like that. However, I think that against most decent hands you're going to have good pot equity (unless you're up against 4 or more hearts)

Plugging it into the simulator, with the CO having AA, KK, QQ, or 77 and the SB having Mid or Bottom set, two pair, or a huge wrap, with random suits and sidecards you get:

AhKhJd3c 36.61%
77**,AA**,KK**,QQ** 19.29%
44**,74**,3568,22** 44.10%

So this pushes me towards a call rather than a fold. You are pretty much gambooling, but most of the time you'll have a small edge here.

[glass_onion]

Tell me why the fold isn't correct. You have an ignorant inside st8 draw. Lets say that's worth 1.5 outs. Flush draw = 9, but how can't one of these guys have trips. So really 7 outs. So maybe a 9.5 out draw. You are getting 1/4 to call jdags all in, you are 1/5 to hit on the turn. IF you hit, balorob only has 2k left, so you can't possibly make up the change in implied odds.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously most of us don't play at these levels, and with no reads its even harder, but overall you're going to have anywhere from 20-40% ev. Don't know if it's worth half your stack to gambool like that. However, I think that against most decent hands you're going to have good pot equity (unless you're up against 4 or more hearts)

Plugging it into the simulator, with the CO having AA, KK, QQ, or 77 and the SB having Mid or Bottom set, two pair, or a huge wrap, with random suits and sidecards you get:

AhKhJd3c 36.61%
77**,AA**,KK**,QQ** 19.29%
44**,74**,3568,22** 44.10%

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem here is that I think it's most likely that SB has a big draw. Do people here call with 44 or 22 preflop? I seriously doubt it, but if they do then they MUST have appropriate sidecards. Also, I doubt an over pair re-pushes here without a flush draw (man, this hand NEEDS reads). 36% is very optimistic i think.

I still think hero's equity falls in the 20-30% range. It's close, but I think calling is -EV.

That said, in the heat of the moment I probably call (assuming I'm actually bankrolled for this).

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me why the fold isn't correct. You have an ignorant inside st8 draw. Lets say that's worth 1.5 outs. Flush draw = 9, but how can't one of these guys have trips. So really 7 outs. So maybe a 9.5 out draw. You are getting 1/4 to call jdags all in, you are 1/5 to hit on the turn. IF you hit, balorob only has 2k left, so you can't possibly make up the change in implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
batoelrob has (barely) less money than jdags21 so jdags' all-in will put batoelrob all-in before the turn. There will be no more betting.

[RickyG]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me why the fold isn't correct.

[/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ]
So maybe a 9.5 out draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

You answered your first question.

[ QUOTE ]
IF you hit, balorob only has 2k left, so you can't possibly make up the change in implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, no. If you go back and read the hand history, you will see that Both of the players will be all in and thus there is no more action, making this a straight up odds problem, where implied odds are completely irrelevant. The stacks are clearly listed at the beginning of the hand history:

jdags21 is at seat 2 with $9400.
HERO is at seat 3 with $26973.
batoelrob is at seat 4 with $9388.

Thus if jdags21 is all in and he covers batoelrob then the question of implied odds is irrelevant. With 9.5 outs against two opponents who are all in for equal ammounts ($12 difference is negligible at these limits) and 9.5 outs over two cards (~36% equity) then you have a very obvious call.

The question in this hand is whether OP actually has 9.5 outs, more than 9.5 outs, or less than 9.5 outs. If we assume that the times he has less (when opponents have hearts in their hands) balances out with the time he has more (when one opponent has an overpair <=KK and the other has no made hand) then this becomes a call.

Also, you have to remember that before the check/raise by batoelrob the hero put in $1400, before having to call the $9050 raise thus he has to call, and there was already $1400 in the pot from before the flop. Thus our hero has to call $7650 to win $20900 and thus only needs to have a 27% pot equity to make this a break-even call. This translates into approximately 7 outs. So if hero has 7 outs or more in this situation, the correct move is to call.

A majority of the time, our hero will have at least 7 solid outs, and THAT is why a fold isnt correct. This is true even if batoelrob decides to fold for his last $2000 for some reason.